| Water is the source of life,and soil is the foundation of survival.Water and soil resources are the foundation of human survival and life,the basic elements of industrial and agricultural production development,and the prerequisites for improving the quality of human life.Shandong Province is China's most populous province,economic province and major grain producing province.In recent years,with the continuous expansion of population size,the continuous improvement of economic development level and the continuous advancement of urbanization,problems such as water shortage,serious water pollution and insufficient reserve farmland resources in Shandong Province have become increasingly serious.Studying the comprehensive carrying capacity of water and soil resources in Shandong Province is the premise to solve the unsustainable problem of water and soil resources development and utilization in Shandong Province.It is the basis for the optimal allocation of water and soil resources and an important topic for improving the relationship between people and land in Shandong Province.This study regards water and soil resources as a complete system.Firstly,based on the comprehensive analysis of relevant literatures at home and abroad,the concept of human-land relationship theory,sustainable development theory,system theory,resource scarcity theory and the concept of water and soil resources carrying capacity are sorted out.Secondly,the status quo of water resources development and utilization in Shandong Province is analyzed from the aspects of total water resources,water structure,current status of water conservancy projects,water supply status and land use structure.Thirdly,by constructing the DPSIR model,the comprehensive carrying capacity of water and soil resources in Shandong Province in 2007,2012 and 2016 is calculated.From the perspective of human-land coordination,the change trend of the comprehensive bearing capacity index and comprehensive index of soil and water resources in Shandong Province is analyzed.Conduct obstacle analysis to find out the main limiting factors for the comprehensive carrying capacity of water and soil resources.Then,using the water resource method owned by cultivated land per unit area,the water and soil resource matching coefficient of Shandong Province since 2000 is calculated,and the matching state is analyzed by time and space.Finally,the current pressures on the comprehensive carrying capacity of soil and water resources in Shandong Province are summarized,and the specific countermeasures and suggestions for effectively improving the comprehensive carrying capacity of soil and water resources are put forward,in order to provide reference for the sustainable and efficient utilization of water and soil resources in Shandong Province.The main findings are as follows:(1)The changes of the comprehensive bearing capacity of soil and water resources in Shandong Province and its 17 cities were analyzed.The results show that from 2007 to 2016,the driving trends of Shandong Province and the pressure index are more consistent,showing a trend of “first rising,then falling,and overall rising”.It shows that the potential or potential pressure of the land and water resources system in Shandong Province has generally increased in the past decade.With the continuous change of the driving force and pressure acting on the land and water resources system,the state index shows a trend of “first drop,then rise,and overall decline”.It shows that with the fluctuation of pressure in the past decade,the status of water and soil resources system in Shandong Province has generally declined.The change characteristics of the impact index are expressed as “first rise and then fall,and overall change is not significant”.It shows that the impact of the state change of the soil and water resources system on the natural environment and social development of Shandong Province rises first and then decreases,and the change is small overall.The change of the response index is characterized by “first rise and then fall,overall decrease,and overall low”.It shows that in the past ten years,in response to the changes in the status of the land and water resources system and its impact,the response measures taken in Shandong Province are still weak and need to be further strengthened.(2)The spatial and temporal pattern evolution analysis of the comprehensive carrying capacity of water and soil resources in Shandong Province was carried out.In order to more intuitively understand the changing trend of the spatial pattern of comprehensive bearing capacity of water and soil resources in Shandong Province in the past ten years,ArcGIS 10.2 is used to visually express the spatial and comprehensive capacity of water and soil resources in 17 cities,2007,2012 and 2016.The level of carrying capacity is divided into five relative levels.The results show that from the perspective of time,the comprehensive carrying capacity of soil and water resources in Shandong Province shows a trend of “first rise,then fall,and overall rise”,which is consistent with the trend of driving force system and pressure index.From a spatial perspective,the center of gravity of Shandong Province has spread from the eastern coastal areas to the central inland areas.(3)The main obstacles to the comprehensive carrying capacity of land and water resources in Shandong Province and its 17 cities were identified.Through the calculation of the index obstacle degree of the comprehensive carrying capacity of water and soil resources in Shandong Province and its 17 cities in 2016,the five main obstacles to find out the comprehensive carrying capacity of soil and water resources in Shandong Province are the change rate of cultivated land area,the proportion of wetland area,the amount of water resources per capita,the matching coefficient of water and soil resources and the water use rate of ecological environment.Among them,the change rate of cultivated land area has the greatest impact on the comprehensive bearing capacity of soil and water resources.On the whole,the five main obstacles to the comprehensive carrying capacity of land and water resources in 17 cities are more consistent with those in Shandong Province.In addition to the above five factors,it also includes the agricultural mechanization,per capita GDP and land degradation rate.(4)Summarize the spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics of the matching status of water and soil resources in Shandong Province.From the perspective of time,since 2000,the matching status of soil and water resources in Shandong Province has changed significantly from year to year,and the overall trend is uninterrupted,and the highest matching degree is gradually reduced.From the perspective of space,the overall water and soil resources in Shandong Province are generally matched.The matching degree of land and water resources is generally more than 70%,and the cities with better matching are mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal areas.The shortage of water resources is the main constraint factor for the matching of land and water resources in Shandong Province and its 17 cities.(5)The countermeasures and suggestions for effectively improving the comprehensive carrying capacity of water and soil resources in Shandong Province were put forward.Through the above analysis,the pressures faced by the current comprehensive bearing capacity of water and soil resources in Shandong Province are summarized.From the following six aspects,the specific countermeasures for effectively improving the comprehensive carrying capacity of water and soil resources in Shandong Province are proposed: improving the supply capacity of water and soil resources;promoting the intensive use of water and soil resources;protecting and improving the environment of water and soil resources;vigorously improving the level of scientific and technological innovation;Create a good atmosphere for all people to participate. |
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