Study On The Coordination Relationship Between Urbanization And Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

In recent years,"city-water" or "city-human-water" contradiction are prominent.In the context of rapid and efficient development,problems such as drying up of rivers and lakes,pollution are exacerbated.These problems also threaten water security,squeeze water resources.Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei are cities where water resources is scarce.Rapid urbanization aggravates the conflict between cities and water resources,but this conflict prompt the cities to explore new ways of coordinate and seek new development.Therefore,it is meaningful to find a coordinated way of urbanization and water in these regions.This paper combines the actual situation and theories such as coordinated development,sorting out the coordination relationship between urbanization and water resources that affect each other.To optimize the coordination between urbanization and water as the guide,firstly,two index systems for urbanization and water resources carrying capacity are constructed respectively,with a total of 31 indexes,such as GDP per capita,ecological water consumption rate,etc.Then,the weights of these indexes are calculated by CRITIC-entropy weight method.And evolution of urbanization and water resources carrying capacity in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei are analyzed by development index evaluation model.The results show that urbanization indexes of the three regions are increasing,but Beijing and Tianjin have more advantages.The level of water resources carrying capacity is improved in three regions,all reaching the weak carrying level Ⅱ by 2021.Secondly,the model is constructed to calculate the coupling coordination degree,the ranges of coordination degree for Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei are 0.6341-0.8073,0.5551-0.7438 and 0.3180-0.6186 respectively.And it is found that Beijing and Tianjin are in high quality coordination,Hebei increases to a coordinated state gradually although it is in a low level of coordination.Based on the result of coupling coordination degree,GM(1,1)model is constructed to forecast,and coupling coordination degree of three regions will be improved to 0.8164,0.7767 and 0.7502 by2025.Finally,based on the obstacle degree model,the influence factors are found,and these factors are mostly found in the population,spatial aspects of urbanization and the resource aspect of water resources carrying capacity.Therefore,to narrow the coordination differences among regions and seek coordinated way of urbanization and water resources carrying capacity,some measures are proposed,such as enhance ecological protection,cities development depends on water resources,with the aim of promoting harmony between cities and water resources.It is also hoped that the coordinated relationship will steadily move towards quality coordination in Beijing and Tianjin while promoting the rapid improvement of this relationship in Hebei.According to these relevant suggestions,synergy between cities and resources is implemented.