| (1) Water resource is not only an important material basis of social economic development, but also an irreplaceable natural resource. Water resources carrying capacity is an importance part of regional natural resources carrying capacity, which is a restriction factor in the region tightly short of water resources whether can support the population, economy and environment to develop harmoniously. A dynamic model is set up in this paper and the water resources carrying capacity in the next 20 years in Shandong province is predicted by three kinds of projects. The results indicate that water resources carrying capacity equilibrium index numbers is all smaller than zero during the next 20 years under the three kinds of projects, which demonstrate that the social economic system that the water resources carrying capacity responding to can't carry. From the project 1, from 2006 to the year 2025, the total water demand of Shandong province fluctuates between 270 and 340 hundred million cubic meters, the industry water use arise 300%, but the agriculture water use don't greatly decline; From the project 2, water demand will have a big fluctuation, which increases near 300% in the next 20 years and the quantity of water resources consumes is too great, consequently, we suggest that, in the next 20 years, Shandong province should strengthen a macro view to adjust and control the speed of GDP growth , and significantly reduce the water resources of unit GDP, which can truly realize science development view and sustainable development; From the project 3, change of the amount of water demand isn't very big in Shandong province, though the industry develops very quickly, the value of water demand on industrial of every increased ten thousands Yuan descends greatly, the whole value of water demand on industrial does not arise, the value of water demand on agriculture also descends, the result of which is our expectation.(2) Land resource carrying capacity security is a very important issue which has a significant influence on the social stability of both a country and a region. Meanwhile, the fluctuation of grain output has a close relation with Land resource carrying capacity security. Thereby, the researches on the periods, amplitudes and characteristics of the fluctuation of grain output and its causes are propitious to reduce the intensity of the fluctuation, to eliminate unfavorable factors, and further to keep the stability of grain output to insure Land resource carrying capacity security. Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is a powerful method for analyzing the nonlinear and non-stationary time series. Therefore EMD method was introduced to study the fluctuation of grain production in Shandong province, and the data have been decomposed into two IMFS and a residual trend term.The conclusions are drawn: The fluctuations of grain output have 3.5-year, 7.5-year, 10-year and 20-year time scales. Shown from the residual trend term, the grain output has increased continually since 1949.Utilizes dynamics modeling method in this foundation, establishes the prediction model, In future 20 years grain yields will carry on the value simulation in Shandong Province. Looking from the grain yield that the Shandong Province grain productivity assumes the trend of escalation and according to the existing farming inventory and the historical trend of development that there is not the grain short problem in Shandong Province. But we cannot depend upon the expansion sown area to increase the grain yield, to guard against the initiation ecological questions.
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