Research On Evaluation And Optimal Allocation Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Jiamusi Cit

Water,the foundation of natural resources,is an important material basis for human life and production.However,water shortage per capita and water supply contradiction are increasingly serious,which affects economic and social development.Especially,there are major challenges in some areas with relatively scarce water resources and high agricultural water consumption.Located in the heart of the Sanjiang Plain,the city of Jiamusi is a national grain-producing base,with a large proportion of primary industries and a huge amount of water used for agricultural irrigation.Statistics show that the amount of groundwater extracted in the city in 2020 has seriously exceeded control indicators of local water resources development and utilization.Based on this point,this paper takes Jiamusi city as the study area,evaluates and researches the water resources carrying capacity of Jiamusi city,and constructs optimal allocation of water resources model.It aims to scientifically and reasonably allocate water supply in the study area and improve water resources utilization rate,providing scientific solutions for the coordinated development of production,life and water resources in this area.The main research contents and achievements are as follows:(1)With date support such as water resources bulletin of Jiamusi city,statistical yearbook and national economic and social development bulletin,this paper selects 20 indicators including annual rainfall and water utilization rate,constructs 4 evaluation subsystems such as water resources,as well as uses Matter-element Extension-cloud model for combinatorial weighting in game theory to analyze water resources space in seven administrative districts of Jiamusi city.The results are as following:the carrying capacity of Tang Yuan County is good;while downtown Jiamusi City,Huachuan County,Fujin City and Tongjiang City are on the verge of overload;Huachuan County and Fuyuan City are on the verge of mild overload.In general,the carrying capacity of water resources in Jiamusi City is on the verge of overload and needs to be further improved.(2)This paper selects 2020 as the status quo year and refers to the information on urban planning,achievements and economic expectations of Jiamusi.With 2025 and 2030 as the planning years,the water supply,demand and its balance of Jiamusi were predicted and analyzed by the quota method.The results show that there is water shortage in the planning years 2025 and 2030 at the guarante rate of P=50%and P=75%,and all administrative districts have different degrees of water shortage.(3)Based on the actual situation of water sources in Jiamusi city and the prediction of water supply in the planning year,a multi-objective optimal allocation model with social,economic and ecological environmental benefits is constructed.Besides,this paper selects 2020 as the status quo year,2025 and 2030 as the planning years,and uses NSGAⅢ algorithm to solve the pareto optimal solution.The following 4 optimal allocation options of water resources in the planning year are concluded:Option 1 gives priority to social benefits;Option 2 gives priority to social and ecological environment benefits;Option 3 gives priority to economic and ecological environment benefits;Option 4 focuses on the synergistic development of society,economy and ecology.Compared with other options,Option 4 is the optimal option,which focuses on socio-economic development,ecological protection and management,and promotes the sustainable development of social economy and water resources systems.