Research On Spatial And Temporal Distribution Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity In China

"Water" is the source of life.It affects social and economic stability and sustainable development from all aspects of human.It can be said that,leaving the water,human beings will not be able to live and social economy can not continue.Therefore,the rational exploitation and utilization of water resources has been one of the hot topics in domestic and foreign scholars.China's abundant water resources ranked fourth in the world,but per capita water resources occupancy is only one-fourth of the world average level.The total population of China is expected to exceed 1.6 billion by 2050.Visible,our country will face more severe water pressure in the future.In addition,due to the diversity of topography and climate,the regional distribution of water resources in China is different.So it is of practical significance to study the spatial and temporal distribution of regional water resources.Starting with the related theories of water resources,this paper explains the connotation of water resources carrying capacity,and analyzes that the idea of measuring water resources carrying capacity is mainly determined by regional balance of supply and demand,that is,the relationship between available water supply and demand in different periods within a certain range.This provides a theoretical basis for this paper to measure water resources carrying capacity from the angle of supply and demand.Then,starting with the three aspects of water storage capacity,water load and fixed water potential,the index system is constructed respectively.The entropy method is used to analyze the current situation of water storage,water use and fixed water in the region of China.It is found that there are significant differences in the status quo of water storage,water use and fixed water in the region of China.Secondly,the water resources account is divided into domestic water accounts,agricultural water accounts,industrial water accounts,ecological water accounts,and the ecological footprint method is used to measure the per capita water footprint of each water account separately,thus obtaining the water structure of China.Then the water resources carrying capacity and water footprint of China's 31 provinces(except Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)are measured from the point of view of water supply and water resources bearing capacity,making the regional water resources deficit(surplus)in the northern region,and showing a little difference in carrying capacity.In view of the significant spatial diversity and spatial agglomeration characteristics of water footprint per capita in China's regional water accounts,through the short panel regression model and the spatial econometric model,the causes of difference and spatial agglomeration are analyzed,and the conclusion is drawn: The per capita water footprint of the living water account does not have the remarkable individual effect.To establish a mixed regression model,and the main influencing factors are urbanization rate and tertiary industry ratio.Agricultural water account and industrial water account per capita water footprint has significant individual and time double fixed effect.So LSDV model was established.And found that the main factors of industrial and agricultural water using are total output value ratio and agriculture adds value to water consumption.Per capita water accounts also have individual and time double fixed effects,so LSDV model is established.It was found that not all the factors that affect each water account have an impact on the total per capita water using.Only urbanization rate,agricultural gross output ratio and unit agricultural added value have a significant impact.Building geographical weight and economic weight sets for spatial correlation test respectively,the spatial correlation of geographical weight through the Moran analysis.The spatial error model is established,which shows that the spatial agglomeration effect of regional per capita water using in China comes from the correlation of error terms.Finally,based on empirical analysis,some suggestions are given.Water-rich areas supply water to water-poor areas in order to promote the balance of regional water resources and reduce the load on regional water resources.Speed up industrial reform and build an industrial chain with small water consumption and urge water-consuming enterprises to carry out technological innovation and improve water use efficiency.Continuously raise awareness of water-saving among urban residents through publicity and education and raising taxes and penalties.