Development And Application Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Evaluation Model In Hebei Province Based On System Dynamics

With the development of society,the water crisis has become a problem that threatens the coordinated development of the world,and often becomes a bottleneck that restricts regional social progress,economic development,and the improvement of people's living standards.How to find a balance between the development and utilization of water resources,social economic development and ecological environmental protection is related to the sustainable development of the economy and society.Water resources carrying capacity evaluation research has received more and more attention in the process of seeking the rational development and utilization of water resources.How to conduct water resources carrying capacity evaluation simulation in a concise way is the focus of this research.By studying the feedback process of system dynamics and combining the calculation method of ecological footprint,a universal system dynamics-ecological footprint combined forecasting model is established.The core principle of the water resources carrying capacity evaluation model comes from the principle of system dynamics.Analyze and confirm the various variables involved in the system dynamics evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity,simplify the evaluation model parameters,establish the corresponding difference equation,and complete the prototype of the system dynamics-ecological footprint model.Based on the above content,this research has designed,developed and implemented a water resources carrying capacity evaluation model system.By analyzing the overall framework of the water resources carrying capacity evaluation model system,the B/S framework is adopted for system development.The functional modules of the system are simple and clear,and they are the login module,the water resources carrying capacity evaluation module,and the data download module.The users of the system are divided into two categories.One is registered users,who can perform model prediction calculations,or download and store the calculation results locally;the other is general tourists,who can use the system's prediction model for data prediction simulation,but they can't Perform data download.The system consists of a front-end visual display platform and a back-end computing management platform.Use Flask framework for web-side development,front-end development uses Html language for interface design,CSS for interface rendering;back-end model development uses Python language,calling its rich extension package to complete the data calculation process.Data storage is carried out through the My SQL database,and the front-end and back-end data interaction is completed by ajax asynchronous request method.The validity verification of the water resources carrying capacity evaluation model is completed by using historical data of Hebei Province from 2010 to 2019.On this basis,the evaluation and analysis of the water resources carrying capacity of Hebei Province from 2020 to 2030 are carried out through the real data of Hebei Province in2019 combined with the evaluation system.By setting four different development plans,calculation and analysis of the state of water resources utilization in Hebei Province under different scenarios.Analyzing and predicting results,it can be concluded that only by coordinating development and coexisting in harmony with nature can we make better use of water resources,protect the water environment,and ensure the sustainability of social and economic health.