The Evaluation Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Hangzhou River Estuary Area

Water resources are one of the basic resources that humans rely on for normal production and life.At present,with the acceleration of urbanization and the increase in population size,the degree of development and utilization of water resources is gradually expanding,and the original spatial and temporal distribution of water resources is uneven.The characteristics and the worsening of the water environment in some regions have led to an increasingly scarce amount of available water resources worldwide,which has a greater restrictive effect on regional economic and social development.Evaluating the carrying capacity of water resources effectively is the basic work for the rational development and utilization of water resources and the formulation of regional economic and social construction and development.Therefore,through research on the evaluation method of water resources carrying capacity in the Hangzhou River Estuary Area,this paper clarifies the regional water resources carrying status and existing problems,ensures the effective development and management of water resources,eases the contradiction between supply and demand of regional water resources and provides reference for realizing regional economic and social construction Coordination with water resources development.(1)Construct a water resources ecological footprint model,calculate the water resources carrying capacity indicators of the Hangzhou River Estuary Area from 2004to 2017,and use an exponential smoothing model to predict the water resources ecological footprint,ecological carrying capacity,and ecological pressure index for2018-2025.The results show that the ecological footprint of total water resources from2004 to 2017 is between 3.47-4.22Mhm~2 and is generally stable;the annual total water resources ecological carrying capacity fluctuates between 3.02-9.33Mhm~2;changes in ecological surplus basically the same trend with the ecological carrying capacity.Ecological pressure index changes generally decline but fluctuate violently.The changes in the ecological footprint of water resources of 10,000 yuan in GDP and the ecological footprint of 10,000 industrial value-added are basically decreasing year by year.Judging from the prediction results,the per capita water resources ecological footprint and ecological pressure index of 2018-2025 are both showing a downward trend,and the per capita ecological carrying capacity increased slightly in 2018.(2)Establish an indicator system including 14 indicators including 4 subsystems of water resources system,economic system,social system and ecological environment system,and construct water resources Carrying capacity rating standards,using PCA to analyze the water resources carrying capacity of Hangzhou River Estuary Area,and using exponential smoothing method to predict the score and rating.The evaluation results show that the water resources carrying capacity shows an overall decrease and violent fluctuations.Among them,the water resources carrying capacity in 2004-2007belongs to level?,and the water resources carrying capacity is relatively strong.It belongs to grade?,and the resource carrying capacity is average.From 2012 to 2017,the water resource carrying capacity was grade?except 2014.The water resource carrying capacity was weak,and the ecosystem began to show signs of instability.Judging from the prediction results,the score of water resources carrying capacity in the estuary region in 2018-2025 shows a significant downward trend.By 2020,the water resources carrying capacity will be grade IV,and 2021-2024 will be grade III.At level?,the water resource carrying condition is better.(3)From the analysis results of the two evaluation methods,the PCA model reflects that the water resources carrying capacity of the Hangzhou River Estuary Area in 2004-2017 basically deteriorated year by year,and the ecological footprint model reflects the fluctuations in the water resources carrying capacity of the estuary,but the overall gradual increase At the same time,judging from the prediction results of the two models,the water resources carrying capacity will show an increasing trend by2025.From the difference analysis of the two models,the PCA results tend to reflect the pressure of various indicators on the water resources carrying capacity The size changes,so it is more pessimistic,and the ecological footprint model quantitatively reflects the status of water resources carrying capacity,which has great practical significance,but the number of model indicators is small,so it is advisable to combine the analysis methods of the two models from the qualitative and quantitative aspects comprehensively consider the carrying capacity of water resources.