The Comparative Research Program Of Shenyang Comprehensive Carrying Capacity Based On System Dynamics

With the development of urbanization, cities limitied by population, resources, environment, city size and other factors are continue to increase in the development process. Such as environmental pollution, lack of resources and urban congestion which called "urban disease" has gradually attracted the attention of the city's carrying capacity. Efforts to improve the carrying capacity of the city's are important for long-term stability for the city's future development and people's improved quality of life.In this paper, made Shenyang as the research object. The purpose is through the establishment of Shenyang comprehensive carrying capacity systems dynamics model, to design four different comprehensive carrying capacity development programs, to evaluation and analysis through comprehensive carrying capacity of the future elected Shenyang best program. On the basis of the best program put forward suggestions for promoting comprehensive carrying capacity of shenyang.Firstly, define the concept of the city's comprehensive carrying capacity. Divided into comprehensive carrying capacity of population, resources, economy, environment, social five subsystems, according to the intension of city's comprehensive carrying capacity. Under the guidance of view of sustainable development and systems theory views point, combined with intension of comprehensive carrying capacity and characteristics of shenyang, based on analyzing the relationship between the process of urban development of population, resources, economy, environment, social subsystem, to establish Shenyang comprehensive carrying capacity systems dynamics model. Regulating the simulation parameters within a reasonable range. Designed inter alia the status quo continuation of the program, rapid development,conservative development and coordinated development programs. Each program parameters are integrated into the Shenyang comprehensive carrying capacity systems dynamics model, obtaining predictive value of each element under four different programs.Established comprehensive carrying capacity evaluation system and use AHP weights given to each indicator. Selected as an evaluation method of fuzzy evaluation method, four indicators on the various elements of development programs under a comprehensive evaluation. To elect the highest scores, also the optimized development plan for comprehensive carrying capacity. The results show that the coordinated development program make the best comprehensive carrying capacity status. Therefore, basised on coordinated development program put forward suggestions for promoting comprehensive carrying capacity of shenyang, such as optimizing the industrial structure, maintaining moderate economic growth, establishing a resource-saving city, increasing environmental efforts and improving the social security.