The Analysis On System-Of-Systems Combat Simulation Credibility

Simulation confidence is a synthesized evaluation on the credibility of models and simulation results; it is based on Verification, Validation and Accreditation(VV&A) of Modeling and Simulation(M&S) life cycle. In recent years, with the increasing complexity of simulation system, System-of-Systems(SOS) kinds of huge complex systems emerge gradually. In this paper, simulation confidence is analyzed from the following aspects by parsing an object of System-of-System combat simulation system.1. At the basis of SOS combat simulation and VV&A, this paper analyzes the characteristics of SOS combat simulation system, establishes the general model of SOS combat simulation and VV&A, summarizes the basic concepts, work flow and common techniques of VV&A, and identifies the relationship between simulation confidence and VV&A.2. This paper gives a detailed analysis and discussion on VV&T which takes XXX simulation system as an example. It analyzes the composition, working principle and the relationships between each module of XXX simulation system. It verifies and validates requirement analysis, conceptual models, mathematical models and simulation models at every stage, compares the simulation data with the real test data, and validates the credibility of models by using mathematical statistics method and spectral analysis method.3. This paper focuses on the assessment theory of SOS combat simulation system. It summarizes the general steps and builds the assessment process model, proposes an effective way to assess the credibility of simulation system. According to the actual application, it establishes the evaluation index tree of SOS combat simulation system, and put forward the combination evaluation index weighting method. After comparing and analyzing the traditional credibility evaluation methods, it proposes an improved simulation credibility assessment method. This is a combat mission based method, and it helps make different quests of confidence assessment come true.4. Finally, from the point view of practical application, a XXX SOS combat simulation system is studied as an object. By combining the characteristics of XXX SOS combat simulation system with VV&A technology and constructing the index tree of evaluation, this article gives an overall assessment throughout the simulation system and calculates its simulation confidence. The final result shows that, the XXX SOS combat simulation system can be accepted, and the comprehensive evaluation method turns out to be useful and practical in solving the simulation confidence of SOS combat simulation system.