Mathematical Simulation Credibility Evaluation

Simulation credibility is one of key problems in M&S and VV&A is a basal way to enhance simulation credibility. Mathematic simulation model and subsystem is an important component of general simulation system, so it is significant to carry through VV&A work and assess credibility about it. According to the traits and requirement of mathematic simulation system, this paper did academic and applied research on its credibility.Firstly, it introduced the process, method and principle about the building of mathematic simulation model and researched the verification of mathematic simulation model from the sides of both mathematic model and simulation program. It presented the main goal and methods about the verification of mathematical simulation model and brought forth the process of verification according to the building process of simulation model.Secondly, it studied the methods of validating the mathematic simulation model and developed applied tool. According the traits of mathematic simulation model, it analyzed and compared the methods of validation. After that, a software tool of validating mathematic simulation model was designed and developed to assist the work of model validation.Thirdly, it studied the credibility assessment of system both from qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. At first, it summarized several methods of credibility assessment, such as layered analysis, fuzzy synthetic assessment, then compared their application. After that, it designed and developed Credibility Synthetic Assessment Tool to supervise the work of credibility assessment.Finally, the above methods and software tools were applied in the credibility assessment of mathematic simulation subsystem of a simulative test system. On the basis of analyzing the component of mathematical simulation subsystem,we chosen proper methods to verifying and validating it. The result of synthetic credibility assessment was given out and we analyzed it briefly.