The Establishment And Application Of Predictive Model Based Control Of His Company CMMI Software Projects

With the development of science and technology and the arrival of information age, software plays a more and more important role in our social and economic life. The software industry has entered a period of rapid growth. However, with the rapid growth of the software industry, the software system is required to achieve more and more functions; the system becomes more and more large and complex. At the same time, the project group contains more and more members; project management becomes more and more difficult. Effective process control of software project is one of the keys to guarantee the success of software projects. At present, majority of software companies in the world are experimenting with process control, ZhongBo Company is no exception. But ZhongBo’s software project management still has a large number of uncertain and subjective factors now; the project management success is still unknown.This is a huge risk for the company.In this paper, based on the CMMI4standard, combined with PMBOK, ISO9001and mathematical statistics theory, the key problems in designing and implementing the project management program is discussed, and the solution is put forward. First of all, based on the general description of the overall environment of software industry, the current problems and challenges faced by ZhongBo Company are put forward. And the purpose and significance of this study is point out. According to the present situation of domestic software project management, the application prospects are put forward. And the structure of this paper is to be clarified. Then, the theoretical basis of the study relates to the paper is described, including the theory of CMMI, PMBOK, the basic knowledge of mathematical statistics and the summary of related research from domestic and foreign. The research methods and technical route is to be clarified also. Then is the core content of the paper. This part mainly explains how to build the prediction models by using the historical data of ZhongBo company;and these models will focus on the corporate goals and objectives of the project;and these models can be actually used in the software quantitative project management. The process of software project can be measured and controlled dynamically by using these models.When the actual status of the project deviate from the plan, project managers use prediction models given by this paper and make corresponding control decisions quickly, and then adjust the relevant factors to achieve the project objectives. This paper discribies the methods and techniques of how to build the modles, the model description and the application descripiton in detail.This paper also put forward an application example. Finally, according to the problems existing in the software project management of ZhongBo Company and the prediction models mentioned in above, the analysis about the expected effect of quantitative project management is to be carried out. The end chaprter sums up the whole of the paper, pointing out the existence oversight and putting forward prospect.