Study On The CBM Industry Risk Based On System Dynamics

Abstract:In view of the increasingly serious energy crisis and the conspicuous atmospheric pollution, strengthening our country’s energy independence ability and reducing the proportion of coal in primary energy consumption is the only way to solve the dilemma. But Chinese resources endowment as "rich coal, inferior, less gas" makes difficult to achieve the two goals of strengthening energy independence and reducing the consumption of at the same time. Under the background developing new energy become the only way for Chinese economic development, so the development of unconventional resources, including coal bed methane, attach great importance to the government. Benefit from technology progress of coal-bed methane mining and the success experience of CBM commercial, prompt the commercial exploitation of coal-bed methane industry developing in China. Because the restrictions of many real factors such as geological conditions, Chinese CBM industry development path is full of twists and turns, the outlook is uncertain. Under the background this study has practical significance for coal-bed methane industry risk, it is help for to make policies of CBM.The article combed the domestic and international research on related literature to industrial risk, current risk research still tend to think that the current industry specific and micro, medium range of risk research is relatively lack. So the author selected the systemic research tool——system dynamics as the main tool, it is easy to study the scope of business risk. Moreover in the process of data processing, in order to accurate results fast, also use the application of SPSS such data processing software.In this paper, through analyzing the current Chinese CBM industry, determine the target of system dynamics modeling, system boundary, and analyze feedback properties among elements, and through the technology of data processing, builds the quantitative relation between variables. Finally through the simulation results of the test to determine the accuracy of the models, complete the modeling. Using the built model can simulate the potential risk factors of influence on coal bed methane industry, through observing the trend of coal bed methane extraction change and extreme value can learn the affection of the CBM industry after trajectories, and based on this, advance the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.Based on the research of the CBM industry development present situation and analysis the process of modeling system, the article selected natural gas prices, fiscal subsidy level, technology level and conflict of mining rights as risk factors for simulation run. Giving different value into the model will present different paths. By analyzing the curve can be found that all four kinds of risk factors will have a huge impact on CBM industry, but the mechanism of influence is different, the final CBM extraction extremum and curve shape is not the same. According to different risk impact, the article puts forward to raise the level of subsidy, strengthen technology and implement the policy of " gas go with coal ". If we can’t balance the risk, the whole CBM industry will be short.