Simulation Research On E-commerce Industry’s Development Based On System Dynamics

Electronic commerce is a new type of economic activity compromises the merits of the modern information technology and commerce, has become an important force to lead production lifestyle change. In recent years, E-commerce developing rapidly, has become an important part of the strategic emerging industry in China. With its openness, high efficiency, the advantage of globalization, wide in the field of various industries. E-commerce is the important tool to realize the strategy of "Internet plus", and has played a key role in such aspects in promoting the economic growth mode transformation and structure adjustment. At the same time, China’s e-commerce development is still facing a market system is not standard, imperfect legal system is not sound, logistics support such contradictions and problems. Development of E-commerce lack of effective mechanisms and support long-term growth and therefore need to in-depth analysis of dynamical mechanism of the development of e-commerce, sustained and healthy development for China’s e-commerce to provide targeted countermeasures and Suggestions.First, this paper applies complex adaptive system theory to study the influence factors of e-commerce industry development and its dynamic mechanism, analyzed the system interactive relationship of the elements of e-commerce industry; Then, by using system dynamics theory to build e-commerce system dynamics model of industrial development, analytical electronic commerce industry development and the interaction of the macro economic development, the model by technological progress, market demand, economic development and industrial environment of four interrelated subsystems; Using Vensim PLE software on Chinese e-commerce industry development in 2005-2020 to run the simulation, passes the inspection data demonstrate the validity of the model and applicability, systematically analyzed the main factors influencing the development of China’s e-commerce industry and trends; Using the model of policy simulation function, the government guidance, technology progress, logistics, information input and human resources policy, designed for different variables fiction by adjusting the variable values, simulation analysis of different effects on the development of e-commerce industry policy change. Finally, according to the results of the simulation run, combined with China’s e-commerce industry present situation, development of e-commerce industry in China to provide the corresponding countermeasures and Suggestions.