Simulation Research On Systematic Financial Risk In China Based On System Dynamics

As the economy entered the post-financial crisis period,China 's economy has been in a stable state,various economic indicators have been operating well,and financial markets have been operating steadily.However,the successive subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the European sovereign debt crisis have caused financial risks to spread The economy began to decline.In this crisis,there are many loopholes in the evasion of systemic financial risks.The act of maintaining financial stability has not played its due role.Preventing systemic financial risks is the goal of macro-prudential supervision,and no specific regulatory measures have been taken.In this highly interrelated financial system,a single risk event will quickly spread to the entire financial system.The severity of this systemic financial crisis caused by the interrelationship between financial institutions cannot be underestimated.It is worthy of international academic circles and Government departments attach great importance.Therefore,in-depth study of China's systemic financial risks conforms to international research trends and is more conducive to strengthening China's systemic financial risk supervision.This article will study the evolutionary mechanism of systemic risk generation and measure systemic financial risk in multiple dimensions.Its purpose is to propose a systemic financial risk prevention strategy,improve China's ability to resist financial risks,enhance the stability of the financial system,and strengthen its practical significance.Based on the existing systemic financial risk theory,system dynamics tools are used to further study systemic financial risk.The research content mainly includes the following three parts:The first step is to summarize the domestic and foreign literature reviews and research status of systemic financial risks and system dynamics.On this basis,analyzethe evolutionary mechanism and transmission path of systemic financial risks,and consider the characteristics of system mechanics tools to confirm the tool The feasibility of application and implementation paves the way for the empirical analysis later.Through research and analysis of the transmission path of systemic financial risk,this paper divides systemic financial risk into four subsystems: domestic banking risk subsystem,securities market risk,balance of payments risk subsystem,and macroeconomic risk subsystem.The unit identifies the influencing factors and conducts a structural analysis of the systemic financial risks from the perspective of the subsystem,elaborating the feedback loop of the systemic financial crisis in detail.Secondly,this article focuses on the basic theory and modeling steps of system dynamics.It specifically explains the complete modeling of the initial determination of system boundaries,the drawing of causal loop diagrams,stock flow diagrams,model establishment and simulation analysis to sensitivity analysis.process.Systemic financial risk first determines the system boundary,analyzes the systemic financial risk system internal structure relationship,according to the feedback relationship of each variable index,uses the system dynamics special software Vensim PLE to compile a causality diagram,forms multiple loops,and identifies each The length of the loop,and then determine the variable nature of each influencing factor,use different shapes to draw the corresponding variables,draw the stock flow chart,and use the quantitative relationship between the variables to establish a systemic financial risk model.Finally,the system dynamics model of systemic financial risk is used for simulation research.Through the literature research method,each constant factor at the system boundary is given a reasonable interval,and the value is assigned,combined with the analytic hierarchy process and the entropy value method to determine the corresponding weight coefficient of each risk factor,and the equation that affects the variable is established.Using the Vensim PLE software again,the system boundary is assigned,and the auxiliary variables and state variables of the model are entered into equations to simulate and analyze the simulation results.In order to explore effective prevention methods for systemic financial risks,sensitivity analysis is used to detect the risk factors that are sensitive to the system,and finallymeasures and suggestions for preventing systemic financial risks are proposed.The research results of this article provide effective means and ideas for preventing and controlling systemic financial risks,and also enrich the methods and theories of studying systemic financial risks,and provide reference and application value for future research on systemic financial risks.