Research On Carbon Emissions Forecast Of Xin Jiang Thermoelectric Industry Based On System Dynamics

With the development of human society,the problem of the deteriorative earth's enbirment,which caused by emissions of greenhouse gases,has been increasingly serious.People are increasingly aware of the importance of protecting ecological environment.At the same time,the "low carbon" has become a hot spot problem to research.In this paper,we regard the carbon emissions of XinJiang thermal power industry system as the research object,using the thought and theory of system dynamics,establishing carbon system model and forecasting carbon emissions of XinJiang thermal power industry in the future by simulating the model.It's very significant,not only in realistic,but in theoretical,to develop low carbon road of XinJiang thermal power industry.At first,the paper comprehensive analysis the influence factors of carbon emissions system of XinJiang thermal power industry,which based on analyzing current situation of the development of XinJiang thermal power industry,and widely collecting the relevant data and documents,combined with problems were found during the inspection work of carbon emissions.By collating historical data from relevant information,it is estimated that the carbon emission of XinJiang thermoelectric industry in 2015,with about 215 million tons.Secondly,according to the principle of system dynamics model,the paper analysis the structure of the carbon emission system of XinJiang thermal power industry.And the system is divided into four sub-systems: energy,technology,policy and environment.After rendering systematic causality diagram and flowchart,defining the variables,inputting formula function,completing the construction of the model,and testing run the simulation,we can get the simulated data of carbon emissions of XinJiang thermal power industry in 2007-2030.The results show that carbon emissions of thermoelectric industry in XinJiang will increase at first and then decrease,and the emission peak is about 311 million tons in 2020.Carbon emissions will gradually fall by 2030,but remain at around 300 million tonnes.Finally,the paper set three scenarios of standard,low carbon and ultra-low carbon on the basis of the simulation results.By adjusting the main parameters of the variables,the changes of carbon emission in the thermal power industry in XinJiang were simulated.Results show that although the ultra-low carbon scenario is far lower than the others,low carbon scenario is more suitable for the present stage instead of XinJiang thermal power industry.Because of the limitation of the cost of production and social development.