Simulation And Selection Of Fiscal And Taxation Policy In Geothermal Industry Development Based On System Dynamics

Geothermal energy is a kind of green,low-carbon,recyclable and clean energy(including shallow geothermal,hydrothermal geothermal,dry hot rock).According to the China Geothermal Resources Survey Report,the annual recoverable amount of shallow geothermal energy resources in 336 cities is equivalent to 700 million tons of standard coal;the annual amount of hydrothermal geothermal resources is equivalent to 1.9 billion tons of standard coal;the amount of dry hot rock is 856 trillion tons of standard coal,which shows that China is rich in geothermal resources.With the improvement of science and technology,the market scale of geothermal industry is gradually expanding.Some geothermal industries have preliminary commercial value and strategic alternative energy attributes.However,there are many challenges in the development of geothermal industry in China,such as high and uncertain initial investment and imperfect policies.Based on this,in order to promote the development and utilization of geothermal resources,this paper focuses on the shallow geothermal resources and hydrothermal geothermal resources,and studies the fiscal and tax policies for the development of geothermal industry.The innovative results achieved by this study mainly include:(1)Based on the system theory,this paper puts forward the theoretical framework of fiscal and tax policy on the development of geothermal industry.On the basis of system theory,sustainable development theory and public policy theory,this paper analyzes the system structure,system mechanism and system goal of geothermal industry.Combined with the goal and characteristics of development policy on geothermal industry,it puts forward the theoretical framework of this paper,which provides guidance for a more comprehensive and in-depth depiction of the interaction among social economy,energy,environment,geothermal industry and policy,and overcomes the limitations of previous studies on single or partial factors.(2)Based on the analysis of complex system relationship in the process of geothermal industry development,the system dynamics model of geothermal industry is constructed,which provides a means for further exploring the quantitative relationship among geothermal industry,social economy,energy,environment,policy.Through the analysis of the operation mechanism of geothermal industry development,the overall structure of the system dynamics quantitative model of geothermal industry and the social,economic,energy,environment,geothermal and policy subsystems are constructed,which makes the analysis more in-depth and rigorous.(3)Policy mix of geothermal industry are designed from two dimensions of theoretical demand and practical demand of policy design,which overcomes the problem of discussing problems in previous studies,or carrying out research on a policy in the development of geothermal industry,leading to the problem that the research of geothermal industry development policy is not systematic and scientific enough.From the perspective of theoretical demand for policy design,this paper analyzes the policy tools and policy intensity needed for the development of geothermal industry,and makes policy demand analysis from the vertical(policy intensity)and horizontal(policy instrument)directions respectively;from the perspective of practical demand for policy,it uses panel data regression model to analyze the existing single policy and policy mix on geothermal technology level and willingness to invest.Using the experience of geothermal policy abroad,a single policy and policy mix are designed to overcome the limitations of previous studies.(4)According to the policy methods designed above,the simulation of policy effect is carried out from the national level and the typical regional level respectively.According to the multi-objective coordination degree of energy,environment and economy,and considering the resource effect,emission reduction effect and the government's ability to pay,the fiscal and tax policies at the national level and regional level are proposed.