Research On Water Resource Carrying Capacity Evaluation And Development Pattern Of Water Gaging In Xinjiang

Carrying capacity of water resources is a complex giant system involving economy,society,environment,and water resources.It is also the product of the interaction of the above factors.The conflicts between the complex system of water resources,environment,society,and economy in Xinjiang are gradually aggravating,and the shortage of water resources especially,which is the lifeline of high-quality development in the arid area,gives rise to a series of scientific questions which need to be answered urgently.The questions include:what is the state of water resource carrying capacity in Xinjiang,and what are the characteristics of its temporal and spatial evolution?Can the existing water resources in Xinjiang meet the current and future development needs?Under the current water resources conditions,what economic,population,and urbanization development modes should be adopted in Xinjiang to achieve regional sustainable development?In order to answer these questions,a systematic study on the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity and the development model of water quantity in Xinjiang is carried out,in which a comprehensive evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity is constructed and the characteristics of water resources carrying capacity and its temporal and spatial evolution in Xinjiang are analyzed.The economic and social development and water resources demand of Xinjiang and 15prefecture-level administrative regions are predicted and simulated by using the system dynamics scenario simulation method.The development models of economic and social water quantity matching with water resources of each region are proposed.The results are as follows:1.There is an objective adaptation between water resources carrying capacity and economic,urbanization,and population development.The consumption of water resources in a specific region at different stages of economic and social development in a specific period cannot exceed the available amount of water resources produced by the region itself,which is the water resources carrying capacity.The sustainable development of a specific region must take the road of water quantity development matching with the water resources carrying capacity.The misallocation of water resources and the relationship between economic and social development will inevitably bring negative effects on the sustainable development of a region.2.The pressure index of the complex system of water resources carrying capacity in Xinjiang is generally on the rise,and the carrying state of water resources is on the verge of overload.After the comprehensive evaluation of the water resources carrying capacity in Xinjiang,it is found that the comprehensive evaluation index of the water resources carrying capacity in Xinjiang increased from 0.5565 in 2004 to 0.9302 in2018.In most years,the carrying capacity was on the verge of overloading,and the slight overload and severe overload alternated from time to time.In 2018,the water resources carrying capacity was in a state of slightly overload.From the perspective of spatial characteristics,the water resource carrying levels of Karamay,Shihezi,Turpan,Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture,Aksu region,Kashgar region,and Hotan region are in a state of serious overload in 2018.The water carrying capacities in Urumqi,Tacheng,Boertala Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture,Bayingoleng Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture,and Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture were slightly overloaded.The water carrying capacities of Hami City,Yili Kazak Autonomous Prefecture,and Altay Region are on the verge of overloading.3.Based on the system dynamics model of water resources carrying capacity,the population and economic scale of Xinjiang was obtained.By constructing the system dynamics model of Xinjiang's water resources carrying capacity and carrying out multi-scenario simulation analysis,it is concluded that in 2030,the economic scale that Xinjiang's water resources carrying capacity can support is 5.8644 trillion yuan,the population size that capacity can support is 71.48 million people.The GDP will reach2.43305 trillion yuan,and the population will reach 31.537 million.The total water demand is 400.8×10~8m~3,the ratio of supply and demand is 1.44,and the utilization rate of water resources is 60%.Based on scenario simulation,development models of water resources carrying capacity of different regions in Xinjiang are put forward.Yili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture,Altay Prefecture,Bortala Mongolia Autonomous Prefecture,Bayingoleng Mongolia Autonomous Prefecture,and Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture,should adopt a high-speed social and economic development model.Karamay City and Shihezi City should adopt a low-speed development mode,and the remaining 8 prefecture-level administrative regions should adopt a medium-speed development mode.4.To realize harmonious development between water resources and social economy,Xinjiang should develop circular economy,and establish a green development view.It should vigorously carry out an urbanization development pattern of“water supply via water gaging and water supply via borrowing”,“combination of agricultural modernization,water saving industry and service industry”,and“urban-rural harmonious development”.Besides,urbanization development countermeasures should be adopted on such basis.Besides,Selecting the development mode according to local conditions,water resource management measures should be taken to increase the early warning ability of water resource carrying capacity,to scientifically adjust the water utilization structure,to control overdevelopment of water resources,to strengthen multi-channel opening,to intensify virtual water trade,to realize cyclic utilization of water resources,to clarify the water rights,to strengthen the national awareness of water conservation,to implement the strictest water resources management system and environmental economic policies.