Comprehensive Evaluation Of Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based On DPSIRM Model

Yichang,known as Yiling in ancient times,is a prefecture-level city in Hubei Province,located at the boundary between the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River.It controls Bashu above and Jingxiang below.It is known as the " throat of Sichuan and Hubei and the gateway to the Three Gorges".Its geographical location is very important.Yichang is also a vice-central city in Hubei province,ranking second in GDP all the year round.At present,Yichang is focusing on building a modern super-large city,which is located at an important intersection of the eight horizontal and eight vertical main routes of high-speed rail and is an important transportation hub in central China.Just because Yichang's geographical location is very important in terms of natural environment,it is also of great significance in terms of social economy.With the rapid population expansion and rapid economic development,the water demand increases year by year.However,the total amount of water resources is limited and its supporting capacity for the scale of social and economic development is limited.Therefore,it is particularly important to calculate the carrying capacity of water resources in Yichang and judge whether it can support the scale and speed of social and economic development.(1)Water resources will not only undergo renewal and circulation of natural water cycle in the natural process,but also be accompanied by renewal and circulation of social water cycle in the socio-economic process,i.e.a binary water cycle process;On the other hand,water resources have two different forms of existence in the process of social water circulation: solid water and virtual water,i.e.a two-dimensional structure.Therefore,the characteristics of this two-dimensional and two-dimensional water resources should be fully considered when studying the carrying capacity of water resources.(2)This paper introduces DPSIRM framework model for comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity,i.e.driving force-pressure-state-impa ct-response-management DPSIRM)model.The model has been applied to human settlement environment safety,lake ecosystem health and water resources safety,but there is not much research on evaluation of water resources carrying capacity.(3)Programming Projection Pursuit,PP with MatlabR2014 b software is a method for processing and analyzing high-dimensional data,and Genetic Algorithm(GA)is a random search type global optimization method developed by imitating the evolution mechanism of survival of the fittest in nature.The best projection vector of the projection index,that is,the weight of each index,can be solved.(4)Research conclusion: Firstly,the weight of each projection index is sorted and classified according to four levels: key index,important index,sub-important index and general index.Then according to the projection weight of each index,the proportion of each subsystem can be calculated,of which the proportion of state subsystem is the highest 22.17%,and the proportion of management subsystem is the lowest 11.11%.Then,the comprehensive characteristic value of the water resources carrying capacity of Yichang city from 2010 to 2016 is calculated by using the best projection vector,that is,the water resources carrying capacity.Based on the theory of sustainable development,it is graded according to the five standards of impending social collapse,unsustainable development,critical state,barely sustainable development and sustainable development.Finally,the trend changes of various subsystems in Yichang city from 2010 to 2016 are analyzed.The main reasons that affect the carrying capacity of water resources in Yichang city in these seven years are the changes of surface and groundwater resources,annual precipitation and per capita water resources,etc.The secondary reason is the degree of development and utilization of water resources,especially the use efficiency of agricultural irrigation water and water popularization.The following is the degree of environmental pollution caused by industrial and agricultural waste water,waste and domestic waste.What's more,people's treatment of waste water,waste and domestic waste as well as their investment in treatment,etc.