Research On Regional Water Resources Development Based On The Analysis Of Carrying Capacity And System Coordination

From the beginning of human development to the modern society with increasingly advanced science and technology,water resources have always been an important foundation for supporting the continuous development of mankind.It is the unshirkable responsibility of all mankind to protect water resources and realize the sustainable development of water resources.The analysis of water resources carrying capacity and the coordinated development of water-energy-food composite systems are the hotspots of research in the field of water resources after entering the new century.They can provide theoretical basis for the high-quality and high-efficiency development of water resources.With the continuous development of industrial society,all countries need to actively deal with the severe challenges brought by the water resources dilemma.As the most populous country,China is facing tremendous pressure.On the one hand,there are some inherent problems such as prominent contradiction between supply and demand,serious pollution,extensive development.On the other hand,with the global warming,sea level rises,seawater erodes freshwater resources,and the pressure on water resources is increasing.To clarify the development status of water resources system is an important goal of water resources carrying capacity evaluation and coordinated development of water resourcesenergy-food composite system.This paper solves the coordinated development degree of the water-energy-grain composite system in Hubei Province,and explores the changes in the coordinated development status of the composite system.The main content and results of this article are:(1)In order to clarify the sustainable development of water resources in Hubei Province,it is proposed to analyze and evaluate the sustainable development of water resources.The carrying capacity of water resources represents the internal development of the water resources system itself.The energy-food composite system represents the external development status,The results show that the sustainable development of water resources in Hubei Province has been in a good condition since the beginning of the new century,but it is necessary to pay attention to the efficient use of water resources in the process of economic and social development.(2)In view of the ubiquitous index selection and weight determination in the water resources carrying capacity solution model,the DEMATEL method is selected to classify and verify the selected indicators into cause elements and result elements.At the same time,the entropy weight method and the principal component method are combined to determine the correction weight.Research work has collected about 10,000 sets of data since the beginning of the new century and established a long-term series of evaluation models.The results show that the water resources carrying capacity of Hubei Province and other cities are generally improving.In the state of development,the average development level of carrying capacity in western Hubei is higher than eastern Hubei and central Hubei;at the same time,the obstacle degree of each index and each subsystem to the water resources carrying capacity is analyzed by solving the obstacle degree.(3)According to the highly coupling characteristics of water,energy and grain,a dispersion coordination model based on benefit function is established to calculate the coordinated development degree of the composite system The results show that the food system of Hubei Province has developed very rapidly after entering the new century,but at the same time,it increases the demand for water resources and energy,which leads to the lagging development of water resources system and energy system to a certain extent.Through the construction of the coordination model,the results show that the coordination of the W-E-F composite system in Hubei Province is showing a good development trend,and the development trend of water resources carrying capacity together reflects the sustainable development of water resources in Hubei Province.