Research On Calculation And Optimal Allocation Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Xinjiang Baiyang River Basin

The current social development has an increasingly serious impact on water resources.At the same time,water resources issues seriously affect the development of the regional society and economy.Therefore,regional water resources issues have become one of the main research objects in the region.By analyzing the survey of the research area and the current status of water resources utilization in the Baiyang River Basin in Xinjiang,it is found that the Baiyang River Basin in Xinjiang currently has problems such as over-exploitation of groundwater,conflicts between regional water supply and demand,insufficient ecological base flow and ecological water level,excessive agricultural water use,and backward irrigation technology.Seriously restrict the social and economic development of the Baiyang River Basin in Xinjiang.In order to match the social and economic development of the river basin with the supply of water resources,this paper analyzes the utilization of water resources in the river basin,evaluates the water resources carrying capacity,and establishes a multi-objective optimal allocation model of water resources for the problems faced by the river basin,which is suitable for the current river basin development.The theoretical optimal water distribution plan will achieve the optimal water distribution ratio for the upstream and downstream economic,ecological and urban residents in the river basin in the planning year.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)In response to the problems in the utilization of water resources in the Baiyang River Basin in Xinjiang,19 evaluation indicators were selected,and a comprehensive water resource evaluation model was established with the Baiyang River Basin in Xinjiang,Dabancheng District and Tuokexun County as units.The results show that the comprehensive evaluation indexes of Xinjiang Baiyang River Basin and Daban District in the current year are 1.0 and 0.9,which are in a state of water resources carrying capacity on the verge of overloading and water resources utilization slightly inconsistent: Tuokexun County comprehensive evaluation index is 1.2,which is in a light state.Overload and water shortage.(2)In view of the shortage of water resources,the contradiction between water supply and demand,and the lack of ecological water use in the Baiyang River Basin in Xinjiang,a multi-objective optimization model of water resources allocation with the goal of minimizing water shortage,maximizing economic benefits,and maximizing fairness is established.The total water consumption,ecological water,domestic water,and industrial output value are constrained,and the second-generation non-dominated sorting algorithm(NSGA-?)is used to solve the multi-objective optimization model to obtain the theoretical optimal water distribution plan.After the optimized allocation of water resources in the Xinjiang Baiyang River Basin Planning Year(2030),relative to the predicted water allocation plan,water consumption will be reduced by 23.7%,GDP will increase by 10.5%,and the fairness of water distribution in the basin will vary from a wide gap to an absolute average.Compared with the planned water distribution plan,the water consumption is reduced by 9.9%,the output value is close,and the fairness of water distribution in the basin has changed from a wide gap to an absolute average.(3)By comparing and analyzing the economic benefits,water consumption,and fairness of water distribution between the multi-objective optimal allocation plan in the planning year,the predicted water allocation plan and the planned water allocation plan,and based on the geographical environment and development status of each region,the Daban City District In the development of the secondary and tertiary industries,under the condition of ensuring the demand for agricultural products,the main purpose is to reduce the area of agricultural arable land and increase the utilization coefficient of irrigation water.Tuokexun County focuses on developing the primary and tertiary industries,improving irrigation efficiency,and developing tourism based on local characteristics.