Strategic Foresight Based On Large Data

This dissertation, resting upon two purposedly-designed case studies,begins with introducing big data and proposes a new way of strategic foresightwith big data. Then, this paper critically discusses the influence onthinking patterns, methodologies and values brought by the advent of big data. This paper also considers that the popularity of big data might bring in a new data world which is paralleling to the material world. The big data based strategic foresight, different from the classic ones, advocates a data-driven empirical model, and greatly expands the range of human knowledge and the predictable scope. Moreover, big data enhances the rational tools of strategic foresight, and promotes the unification of the rational tools and values of strategic foresight. Additionally, this paper critically reflects on data power, data ethics, the role of big data in human development and its effects in the civil transition of grand strategy. The structure of this paper is listed as below.The first chapter will introduce big data with respect to its basic concepts, history and potential risk. Specifically, this chapter pays more attention on the notion of “fourth paradigm”.The second chapter will review the classic methodologies in strategic foresight. Firstly, this chapter introduces the connotation and concepts of strategic foresight, and then analyzes the three classic strategic foresight in details, at last, explains the interaction of these three methodsby real world cases, and discussesthe possibility of a new way of strategicforesight using big data.The third chapter will introduce the big data based strategic foresight. This chapter firstly emphasizes the necessity of big data based strategic foresight. Resting upon two purposely designed case studies on the netizens’ reflections on(a) the 5th Plenary Session of the 18 th CCP Central Committee and(b) the substitute relationship between social and commercialinsurance,this chapter summarizes the seven major features invoked by big data, in terms of the holistic, correlative, uncertainty, network, crowdsourcing, artificial intelligent.The last chapter will philosophically reflect on this big data based strategic foresight. Starting with a literature review on big data related studies in philosophy, this chapter critically discusses big data based strategic foresight in the context of methodology and the theory of value. From the methodological perspective, big data, advocating a data-drive model, greatly expands human knowledge and predictable scope. Besides, this chapterreminds us keenly aware of the big data fetishism. From the perspective of value, the advent of big data brings about the concerns on data power, the discussion on data ethics, the role of big data in human development and the civil transition of grand strategy. In the end, this paper aims to provide positive thoughts for educating data experts, building new think tanks, as well as drawing up national strategt in big data.This dissertation ends up with a summary and a further research agenda.