Impact Of Trade Facilitation On China-Japan-ROK Import And Export Trade In The Context Of Rcep

The world today is undergoing major changes in the past century and more.The changes in national strength and multilateral trade relations are changing the rules of world economy and trade.The COVID-19 pandemic has had a huge impact on the industrial supply chains of various countries.The number of regional trade agreements in different forms is increasing.The RCEP was proposed by ASEAN in 2012 and consists of China,the Republic of Korea,Japan,Australia,New Zealand and 15 ASEAN members.After years of negotiations,the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership was formally signed in 2020 and officially implemented on January 1,2022.This is an important manifestation of China’s efforts to seize opportunities and safeguard multilateral trade relations in the context of economic globalization.Today,regional cooperation is deepening.As important trade importers and exporters,China,Japan and the ROK will continue to improve trade facilitation among the three countries under the background of the establishment of the RCEP,which will help further strengthen cooperation among the three countries and increase the overall volume of trade among the three countries.Therefore,in this paper,the impact of trade facilitation on the trade volume of China,Japan and South Korea under the background of the establishment of RCEP is taken as the research object,and the data of RCEP member countries from 2015 to 2019 is selected for empirical analysis.This paper first uses the literature induction method to sort out the correlation of trade facilitation,China-Japan-South Korea Free trade area and global trade analysis system.In addition,the current situation of trade between China,Japan and South Korea is analyzed by collecting the import and export scale,commodity structure and economic basis of China,Japan and South Korea in recent years.The results show that in the past 10 years,the trade between China,Japan and South Korea has been in trade deficit.Since 2011,the trade between China,Japan and South Korea has been affected by various factors and increased in fluctuations.Secondly,based on the research of previous scholars,combined with the changes in the new era and the availability of data,a set of trade facilitation evaluation system containing 4 first-level indicators and 10 second-level indicators was constructed,and the TF of trade facilitation level between China and 13 RCEP member countries was calculated and used for regression analysis.As can be seen from the calculation results,among the three countries,Japan has the highest level of trade facilitation,while China,as a developing country,still needs to improve its level of trade facilitation.Thirdly,the traditional trade gravity model is expanded to include variables such as the per capita GDP of the host country,whether the free trade agreement has been signed,the degree of openness of the host country and the tariff level of the host country.Stata and Excel software were used for data collation,descriptive statistics and multiple regression.In addition,GTAP static simulation model was used to predict the impact of improved trade facilitation on trilateral trade after the entry into force of RCEP.In this paper,the trade gravity model and GTAP model are used for empirical researchThis paper draws a conclusion: among China,Japan has the highest level of trade facilitation,followed by South Korea,and China has the lowest level,which is below the pass line level.China has huge potential to improve trade facilitation.Second,the trade flow between China and the RCEP member countries is directly proportional to the per capita GDP of the host country.The improvement of trade facilitation will increase bilateral trade volume.The accession to the RCEP will contribute to the improvement of trade facilitation among China,Japan and the ROK and promote trade among the three countries.Third,improving trade facilitation is more conducive to improving the terms of trade than reducing tariffs.Fourth,the RCEP will be established in 2022,and the bilateral trade volume between China and South Korea will be increased in 2022.Based on the forecast results of GTAP,it will be significantly increased in the future.Based on the data of 2022 and the forecast of GTAP,the trade volume between China and Japan will show an increase in China’s exports and a decrease in Japan’s exports to China.