Study On Project Portfolio Risk Assessment And Response Considering Secondary Risk

With the rapid development of the world economy and the increasingly fierce market competition,most enterprises have gradually changed their business model and adopted the multi-project management model of project portfolio,which helps enterprises coordinate and manage multiple projects under the condition of limited resources,thus increasing their competitive advantages.However,due to a large number of internal components in the project portfolio and complex interaction between projects,improper management of the project portfolio will,to a large extent,generate project portfolio risks,thus hindering the smooth implementation of the project portfolio,and even lead to the failure of the project portfolio.Therefore,in order to ensure the smooth implementation of the project portfolio,enterprises need to urgently solve how to effectively manage the project portfolio risk.In view of the above problems,this paper takes the project portfolio risk as the research object and divides the project portfolio risk into primary risk and secondary risk.The primary risk is the risk existing in the project portfolio itself,while the secondary risk is the risk arising from the implementation of the primary risk response strategy.First,this paper classifies primary risk categories and considers project interaction to identify each type of primary risk factor,and builds a primary risk assessment index system.At the same time,the risk response strategy should be formulated according to the primary risk factors,and the secondary risks that may occur when the primary risk response strategy is implemented should be identified,and the secondary risk index system should be constructed to lay the foundation for the risk assessment.Second,the BP neural network is introduced to build the project portfolio risk assessment model.However,due to the randomness of the initial weights and thresholds of the BP neural network,the local optimal results may be obtained after the completion of training.In order to make the assessment results more accurate,the genetic algorithm capable of global optimization is used to optimize the initial weights and thresholds of the BP neural network.In addition,when using BP neural network to assess risks,it is necessary to set hyperparameters,and adjusting its hyperparameters one by one will not only increase the calculation cost and reduce the training efficiency,but also affect the accuracy of the final assessment results.In order to make the assessment results more accurate,the random search algorithm is used to optimize the BP neural network hyperparameters,so as to improve the efficiency of model training and the accuracy of risk assessment.Then,an example is given to assess the primary risk and secondary risk respectively to verify the effectiveness of the project portfolio risk assessment model proposed in this paper.The results show that the project portfolio risk assessment model proposed in this paper has high accuracy.Finally,this paper uses Garson algorithm to conduct sensitivity analysis on the trained project portfolio risk assessment model,explore the influence of input risk factors on the overall risk of output,identify the critical risks in the primary risk and the critical risks in the secondary risk,determine the final primary risk response strategy and formulate the secondary risk response strategy.Through the above research content,this paper identifies the primary risk from the perspective of project interaction,takes risk dependence into consideration,evaluates the impact degree of the primary risk and secondary risk by using the occurrence probability and impact consequence of the risk,integrates the project interaction and risk dependence into the risk impact degree,and provides a new assessment method for the project portfolio risk assessment makes risk assessment more effective;By introducing BP neural network and optimizing it,the project portfolio risk assessment model is constructed,which provides a new tool for the project portfolio risk assessment and makes the risk assessment more accurate.By considering secondary risks,this paper identifies the critical risks of primary risks and secondary risks,determines the response strategies of primary risks and formulates the response strategies of secondary risks,so as to help managers deal with risks in time and ensure the smooth implementation of the project portfolio.