Population Ageing,Human Capital And The Upgrading Of Industrial Structure

In the twenty-three years since China entered an ageing society,the rapid ageing of the population’s age structure has had a series of negative impacts on industrial restructuring and high-quality economic development,and the shrinking number of labour force has constrained the process of upgrading the industrial structure under the new development pattern.As a result,the key to encouraging the modernization of industrial structure will be to increase the stock of human capital and the effectiveness of human capital deployment.Based on a review of relevant literature at home and abroad,an in-depth analysis of the intrinsic influence mechanisms of population ageing,human capital and industrial structure upgrading is conducted.The entropy weight method is used to measure the comprehensive level of industrial structure upgrading,and to sort out the development status of population ageing,human capital and industrial structure from the perspective of time and space.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces(cities and districts)in China from2009 to 2020,a dynamic panel regression model is constructed to examine how population ageing affects industrial structural upgrading through human capital;a threshold model is established to analyse the change mechanism of the impact of population ageing on industrial structural upgrading at different levels of human capital;a spatial Durbin model is applied to analyse how the direct effect of population ageing,human capital and spatial spillover effects on industrial structural upgrading.Finally,the empirical results are summarised and corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.The results show that: industrial structural upgrading in the previous period further positively affects industrial structural upgrading in the current period,population ageing significantly inhibits industrial structural upgrading,and human capital significantly contributes to industrial structural upgrading;in the mechanism analysis,the influence path of "ageing(deepening)→ human capital(inhibiting)→ industrial structural upgrading(inhibiting)" is confirmed." as the pathway of influence;in the threshold model constructed with human capital as the threshold variable,there is a double threshold for population ageing on industrial structural upgrading.When the stock of human capital is below the first threshold(i.e.the log value is less than 5.074),the coefficient of the impact of ageing on industrial structural upgrading is-0.025.When the stock of human capital is between the first and second thresholds(i.e.in the range of log value 5.074 to 5.635)this coefficient is 0.814,and the impact on industrial structural upgrading shifts from inhibition to promotion.When the stock of human capital exceeds the second threshold(i.e.the log value is greater than 5.635),the coefficient is 1.257,which further strengthens the promotion effect on industrial structural upgrading;the results of the spatial Durbin model show that the effects of population ageing and human capital on industrial structural upgrading are consistent with the dynamic panel regression results,and industrial structural upgrading has a significant positive spatial spillover;the method of partial derivative moments is used to obtain The results of the decomposition of the effects of different factors show that population ageing not only has a suppressive effect on the upgrading of industrial structure in the region,but also has a negative impact on the upgrading of industrial structure in neighbouring regions.The decomposition results of the effects of different factors show that population ageing not only inhibits the upgrading of industrial structure in the region,but also adversely affects the upgrading of industrial structure in the neighbouring regions.The possible marginal contribution of this study is that it verifies the mechanism role of human capital in population ageing affecting industrial structure upgrading from a dynamic perspective based on both time and space dimensions,and enriches the understanding of the effects and impacts of population ageing in the process of economic and social development.Based on the empirical results and analysis,policy recommendations are proposed from various perspectives,including the development of the ageing industry,with a view to helping to address or mitigate the challenges posed by population ageing and advanced ageing to high-quality economic development.Figure 13 table 23 reference 56...