Relative Price、Total Factor Productivity And Agriculturl Profitability

China’s agricultural economic development has entered a "new normal" period.How to improve agricultural profitability and increase farmers’ income steadily is an important issue in China’s agricultural development.At present,scholars mainly focus on agricultural productivity.These studies only involve productivity and efficiency.It is entirely based on production technology,but does not involve the profitability closely related to the feasibility of farmers’ management.However,high productivity does not mean high profitability.So for China’s agriculture,what is the temporal and spatial evolution trend of its profitability? What is the relationship between agricultural total factor productivity(TFP)and inputoutput relative price(TT)and its impact on profitability? The existing research has not yet given a clear answer.In this paper,corn and pig are selected as the research objects,mainly for the following two reasons:(1)The generalized agricultural price data is difficult to obtain,so this paper goes on to study agricultural sub-industries.Considering that the influence of TFP and TT on profitability of different agricultural subindustries may be heterogeneous,it is necessary to discuss them by industry,and planting and animal husbandry are the two most important agricultural sub-industries in China.(2)Corn and pigs have a special position in China’s planting and animal husbandry,and corn and live pigs have complete input,output quantity and corresponding price data.In view of this,this paper uses the input-output quantity and corresponding price data of corn and live pigs in China from 2000 to 2019,based on the total pricequantity analysis framework,adopts F(?)re-Primont TFP index to measure and decompose the profitability of corn and live pigs,and explores the influence of TT and TFP on the profitability of corn and live pigs.The research found that:(1)The growth of corn profitability is characterized by two stages:(1)From 2000 to 2010,corn profitability showed a fluctuating growth,and the main driving factor was the substantial increase of TFP.Technological progress and the growth of mixed efficiency have jointly promoted the growth of TFP.The decrease of TT is due to the slow growth of output price and the substantial increase of total input price.(2)During 2011-2019,the profitability of corn decreased significantly,which was attributed to the significant decline of TT.The significant reduction of TT in this stage is mainly due to the reduction of output price.(2)The profitability of pigs is also characterized by periodic changes,and there is imbalance between scale and region,with obvious heterogeneity.In terms of scale:(1)From 2000 to 2007,the profitability of small scale was higher than that of medium scale,and the difference of profitability of each scale was mainly attributed to the difference of TT.the profitability gap gradually narrowed,which was attributed to the gradual narrowing of the total input price gap;(2)During 2014-2018,profitability reversed,with large-scale profitability > medium-scale > small-scale,and the difference of profitability of each scale was jointly determined by TT difference and TFP difference.the profitability gap is gradually widening,mainly due to the widening gap between the total input price and the main product price.there are great differences in profitability between different regions of the same scale and between different scales in the same region.