Research On The Calculation And Influencing Factors Of Agricultural Green Total Factor Productivity In Hebei Provinc

In recent years,China’s agricultural economy has developed rapidly,but the development model of China’s agriculture is more of a traditional crude resource management model,with agricultural development relying on the use of large amounts of chemical fertilizers,pesticides and agricultural plastic films.Therefore,in order to save resources and protect the environment,there is an urgent need to explore a sustainable and green development path for agriculture.In order to promote the development of agriculture in Hebei Province,it is necessary to consider the environmental factors and to conduct a study on green total factor productivity in agriculture.In order to promote the development of agriculture in Hebei Province,it is necessary to measure and analyse the green total factor productivity and influencing factors of agriculture in Hebei Province,taking into account environmental factors.Firstly,by collecting and organizing the research literature and policy documents available for reference,this paper takes 11 prefecture-level cities in Hebei Province as the research objects,takes the carbon emissions produced by the input factors in the agricultural production process as the non-desired output,constructs an index system including environmental factors,and points out the value and necessity of the thesis research;secondly,provides a statistical description of the current situation of agriculture in Hebei Province in the context of green development;then,and based on the EBM-GML index model to measure the AGTFP and its component indices in Hebei from 2000 to 2020,and analyse the changing trends and development differences of the green production efficiency of Hebei agriculture from two levels:time and region;finally,using the stochastic Tobit regression model from five research aspects: economic development level,agricultural infrastructure,agricultural industry structure,industrialisation level and disaster rate to further Finally,a stochastic Tobit regression model was used to further analyze the influencing factors of AGTFP in Hebei from five research aspects: economic development level,agricultural infrastructure,agricultural industry structure,industrialization level and disaster rate.The research results show that:(1)the output value of agriculture and forestry is increasing,but the area of cultivated land is decreasing,the area sown to crops is increasing slowly,the agricultural labour force is decreasing,the output value per unit of agricultural labour is increasing,the use of agricultural machinery is entering a "bottleneck",the technological progress in agriculture is increasing,the total amount of agricultural carbon emissions is increasing first and then decreasing,and the intensity of emissions is decreasing.The total amount of agricultural carbon emissions increased and then decreased,and the intensity of emissions decreased.(2)The growth of AGTFP in Hebei is single-driven by technological progress,while the deterioration of technical efficiency inhibits its growth;the growth of green total factor productivity in agriculture varies significantly among cities and shows a clustering feature,mainly in the northern cities of Hebei.(3)The level of economic development has a significant contribution to the growth of AGTFP in Hebei;while agricultural infrastructure,agricultural industry structure,industrialisation level and disaster rate have a hindering effect;the impact effect of each factor on AGTFP in Hebei mainly originates from the contribution of the role of agricultural technology progress.In relation to the above research findings,countermeasures are proposed:transforming the use of resources to break the bottleneck of resource constraints;transforming the way of agricultural development to improve agricultural environmental pollution;cognising regional differences and giving full play to the double-drive role of technological progress and technical efficiency;adjusting the industrial structure to promote industrial upgrading;improving industrialisation to promote green development;building an agricultural disaster mitigation and prevention system and establishing an emergency management system.