Research On Incentive Mechanism Game Of Dangerous Goods Aviation Safety Transportation

With the continuous enhancement of world economic exchanges and the deepening of cooperation,the demand for dangerous goods air transport in China has also increased in recent years.Due to the particularity of dangerous goods,once an accident occurs in the process of air transport,it will bring unpredictable losses to people ’s lives and property.Therefore,it is necessary for the civil aviation management department to take certain measures to ensure the safety of dangerous goods air transport.Incentive mechanism is considered to be an important mechanism to promote the evolution of cooperative behavior among groups.Designing a reasonable incentive mechanism can effectively guide responsible parties to implement relevant security policies,thereby improving the safety of dangerous goods air transport.There are conflicting and interdependent interests between civil aviation management departments and airlines.This relationship not only promotes the formation of a game relationship between the two sides,but also determines the long-term and dynamic nature of the incentive problem of dangerous goods aviation safety transportation.In view of this,in order to explore the important factors affecting the game process between civil aviation management departments and airlines,game theory,system dynamics theory and computer simulation technology are used to simulate the incentive mechanism model of dangerous goods aviation safety transportation,and an optimized dynamic incentive strategy is proposed.In order to study the incentive mechanism,from the perspective of the civil aviation management department,the incentive subject and incentive object are determined after combing the relevant literature and the punishment announcement of dangerous goods air transport violations in recent years.At first,the traditional game theory was used to construct the incentive mechanism game model of dangerous goods aviation safety transportation.Through the solution analysis,it was found that the traditional game theory had limitations in solving the incentive mechanism problem of dangerous goods aviation safety transportation.Then,the evolutionary game theory was introduced to construct the evolutionary game model,which overcame the defects of the traditional game theory and verified the conditions for the equilibrium point to reach the evolutionary stability strategy(ESS)with the Friedman theory.In order to explore the change of people ’s strategy choice in the game more intuitively and clearly,the system dynamics theory is introduced,and the model is simulated by Vensim PLE software.The four pure strategy equilibrium points and a mixed strategy equilibrium point obtained in the evolutionary game model are simulated as the initial state.The results show that the five equilibrium points will produce oscillation and do not converge,and the results are not ideal.The optimized dynamic control strategy is constructed and simulated again.The results show that the system changes from an oscillating state to a stable state.Finally,on the basis of in-depth study of the incentive ability of the civil aviation management department and the probability of unsafe incidents in the process of dangerous goods transportation by airlines,the influence of the two on the game process of the incentive mechanism of dangerous goods aviation safety transportation is analyzed according to the simulation results.In view of these two influencing factors,relevant suggestions are put forward to the civil aviation management department and airlines in order to improve the safety of dangerous goods air transportation.