Study On Safety Evaluation And Safety Prediction Methods Of Road Dangerous Goods Transportation Enterprises

With the acceleration of the industrialization process,the demand for dangerous goods in production and life is increasing rapidly,and the frequency and volume of road transportation of dangerous goods are also increasing.Due to the inflammable,explosive and highly toxic nature of dangerous goods,in the process of storage,transportation and handling,once an accident occurs,it will cause extremely serious accident consequences.Monitoring the safety status of dangerous goods transportation enterprises,grasping the development trend of the safety status,and taking effective measures in time can effectively prevent the occurrence of dangerous goods transportation accidents.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the safety management of road dangerous goods transportation enterprises.From the point of view of road dangerous goods transportation enterprises,this paper evaluates the present situation and forecasts the future of safety status of enterprises,which provides technical support for the safety management department and the safety supervision department of the industry.The main work of this paper is as follows:(1)The safety evaluation index system of road dangerous goods transportation enterprises is established.Firstly,qualitative analysis is made on the factors affecting the safety of road dangerous goods transportation enterprises,and then,combined with the results of safety production survey,through literature analysis,expert consultation and actual investigation and research,from the four aspects of dangerous good,personnel,vehicles and facilities,and safety management,the safety evaluation index system is constructed,which is composed of 4 first-class indexes and 21 second-class indexes Finally,based on the data,the safety evaluation index is quantified,and the index scoring standard is designed.(2)The safety evaluation model of road dangerous goods transportation enterprises based on the entropy weight-TOPSIS method is established.Firstly,the entropy weight method is used to determine the index weight and screen the evaluation index.Secondly,the entropy weight-TOPSIS combination evaluation method is used to evaluate the enterprise security.Finally,a case study of road dangerous goods transportation enterprises in Beijing is carried out,and the safety level of the enterprises is evaluated.And through comparative analysis of the level of security between enterprises,mining the weak links of safety production of enterprises of different safety levels,so as to propose targeted safety management for enterprises.(3)The safety prediction model for road dangerous goods transportation enterprises based on equivalent property damage only risk index is established.Firstly,equivalent property damage only risk index is proposed,and the distribution characteristics of the risk index are analyzed.Secondly,the GAMLSS-Hurdle safety prediction combination model of risk index is constructed.Finally,the security prediction of the enterprise is studied.The results show that the combination model has a better prediction effect than the single hurdle model.Based on the combination model,the influencing factors are analyzed.The research finds that the monitoring personnel’s business ability and the enterprise’s ability to detect and manage hidden dangers are the key factors affecting whether the risk index is zero or not,and the driver’s employment years,the average age of the vehicle,and the number of emergency drills are the key factors affecting the value of the risk index.Through the study of enterprise safety evaluation and prediction methods,it provides scientific theoretical basis for enterprise safety management departments to find weak links and guide safety production,and for industry supervision departments to implement hierarchical management and control of safety level.