Research On Provincial Carbon Emission Scenario Prediction And Carbon Peak Path In China

The main reason for the continuous development of global warming is the massive emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide.The international community has been making continuous efforts to control greenhouse gas emissions.As a country with a large population and energy consumption in the world,China ranks first in carbon dioxide emissions in the world.Compared with developed countries,China is facing a more arduous task of emission reduction,Greater efforts are needed.In response to climate change,China has put forward the carbon emission reduction target of "striving to achieve carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutralization by 2060".In the 14 th five year plan,all provinces take "carbon peak and carbon neutralization" as an important task,and formulate carbon emission reduction policies according to local conditions according to local economic development.However,the research at this stage is insufficient to provide sufficient theoretical reference for China to achieve the carbon peak before 2030.Therefore,it is of great significance to formulate appropriate emission reduction schemes in combination with the actual development basis and emission reduction space of all provinces to achieve the national carbon peak goal.The purpose of this study is to analyze the carbon dioxide emissions of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2019,predict the carbon dioxide emissions of the whole country and provinces from 2020 to 2030 by using STIRPAT model,and select the optimal carbon peak path for each province in combination with the carbon emission efficiency under the peak scenario.Firstly,through the calculation and analysis of carbon dioxide emissions in China and provinces from 2004 to 2019,it is found that carbon dioxide emissions in China and provinces increase year by year,and there are significant regional differences between provinces.Six main factors affecting carbon dioxide emissions are screened out by grey correlation analysis.The degree of influence is from urbanization rate,population,industrial structure,economic development level,energy structure and energy intensity.Each factor is in positive proportion to the national carbon dioxide emissions,and there are regional differences in the relationship with the carbon dioxide emissions of all provinces.Secondly,the STIRPAT model is constructed to predict the carbon dioxide emissions of the whole country and provinces from 2020 to 2030.Combined with the scenario analysis method,a benchmark scenario and four regulation scenarios are set.It is concluded that under the benchmark scenario,only five provinces in China,namely Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai,Zhejiang and Guangdong,have achieved the carbon peak before 2030,while China as a whole cannot achieve the carbon peak goal before 2030.Under the four control scenarios,the country and all provinces have achieved carbon peak before 2030.The national carbon dioxide peak from high to low is rapid development-weak carbon control scenario,rapid development-intensified carbon control scenario,slow development-weak carbon control scenario,slow developmentintensified carbon control scenario respectively.The peak time is 2029,2028,2028 and2027,with peaks of 14.201 billion tons,13.927 billion tons and There are 13.858 billion tons and 13.598 billion tons,and the carbon peak situation varies greatly among provinces.Finally,the super efficiency DEA model is used to calculate the provincial carbon emission efficiency under each peak scenario,and the optimal carbon peak path is selected for each province through comparative analysis.The optimal carbon peak scenario of 15 provinces in Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei,Shanghai,Jiangsu,Fujian,Shandong,Hubei,Hunan,Chongqing,Guizhou,Shaanxi,Gansu,Qinghai and Xinjiang is rapid development-weak carbon control scenario.The optimal carbon peak path of 11 provinces in Shanxi,Liaoning,Jilin,Heilongjiang,Zhejiang,Anhui,Jiangxi,Guangdong,Hainan,Yunnan and Ningxia is rapid development-intensified carbon control scenario.The optimal carbon peak path of Inner Mongolia,Henan,Guangxi and Sichuan provinces is slow development-weak carbon control scenario.And put forward targeted suggestions according to the choice of carbon peak path in each province.Figure 6 Table 12 Reference105...