Study On The Decomposition Of Factors Affecting The Carbon Emission Of Guangxi’s Logistics From The Perspective Of Carbon Peak And The Path To The Peak

Logistics industry is a basic and strategic industry of social economy,and also a key industry of carbon emission reduction.As the gateway of Guangxi facing ten ASEAN countries,it is of great importance to clarify the influencing factors of carbon emission in Guangxi logistics industry and achieve the carbon peak in Guangxi logistics industry.From the perspective of Guangxi logistics industry,this paper studies the influencing factors of carbon emissions in Guangxi logistics industry and issues related to carbon peaking path,which is of great significance for promoting the carbon peaking in Guangxi logistics industry.First of all,the paper adopts the generalized Di’s index decomposition method to decompose the factors affecting the evolution of carbon emissions,such as the output of logistics industry,energy consumption and fixed asset investment in Guangxi,and makes a comprehensive,phased and cumulative analysis of contribution value.Then,scenario analysis was used to construct baseline scenario,low-carbon development scenario and technology breakthrough scenario,Monte Carlo method was used to simulate the carbon emission target value of each scenario under different change rates of the above influencing factors,and the carbon emission of logistics industry in Guangxi and prefecture-level cities was simulated and predicted from 2020 to 2035,and the prediction results of carbon peak under the three scenarios were analyzed.Then,the super-efficiency SBM model is constructed,and the total fixed asset investment and energy consumption of the logistics industry are selected as input variables,while the GDP and carbon dioxide emissions of the logistics industry are output variables.The carbon emission efficiency of Guangxi and other prefecture-level cities in the carbon peak year under the low-carbon development scenario and technological breakthrough scenario is calculated.By comparing the carbon emission efficiency under various scenarios and combining the characteristics of Guangxi and other cities,To select the optimal carbon peak path for Guangxi and prefecture-level cities,and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.The results show that:(1)logistics output,energy consumption and fixed asset investment have obvious promoting effect on logistics carbon emissions,output carbon intensity,energy consumption efficiency and investment efficiency have certain inhibiting effect,carbon intensity of energy consumption first increases and then decreases in promoting efficiency,carbon intensity of investment is inhibited first and then promoted.From 2006 to 2020,Guangxi’s carbon emissions have been increasing on the whole.After the 12 th Five-Year Plan,the growth rate of carbon emissions in Guangxi’s logistics industry has decreased,but the decrease of carbon emissions has not been realized.(2)There is a high probability that Guangxi will not reach the carbon peak target before 2030 in the baseline scenario;In the low-carbon development scenario,the peak time of carbon is 2031,with a peak value of 28.3109 million tons,which cannot reach the peak before2030.In the technology breakthrough scenario,there is a high probability that the carbon peak will be achieved in 2029,with a peak carbon emission of 2,042,500 tons.Under the baseline scenario,all prefecture-level cities could not reach the carbon peak,while under the low-carbon development scenario and technology breakthrough scenario,all prefecture-level cities could reach the carbon peak in the logistics industry.(3)According to the breakthrough in technology,adjusting relevant policies in Guangxi is the optimal path to achieving carbon peaking.Among the five prefecture-level cities,Nanning,Liuzhou,Guilin,Wuzhou,and Yulin choose the technology breakthrough scenario,while among the eight prefecture-level cities,Beihai,Chongzuo,Laibin,Hezhou,Baise,Hechi,Qinzhou,and Fangchenggang choose the low-carbon development scenario.Finally,based on the characteristics of Guangxi and each prefecture-level city,corresponding logistic carbon peaking paths are formulated,and targeted countermeasures are proposed.