A Study On Carbon Emission Influencing Factors And Peak Prediction Of JC Company-Under The "Double Carbon" Target

On March 13,2021,China’s 14th Five-Year Plan and 2035 Vision Targets set the targets of reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP and CO₂emissions by13.5%and 18.0%respectively during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.The target of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality for central enterprises is clear.During the14th Five-Year Plan period,energy consumption per 10,000 yuan of GVIO of central enterprises will be reduced by 15%.In the meantime,carbon dioxide per10,000 yuan of GVIO will decline by 18%.By the end of 2030,carbon dioxide emissions per 10,000 yuan of GVIO will be reduced by more than 65%compared with 2005.Carbon dioxide emissions of central enterprises will reach a peak and achieve stable decrease.Those central enterprises in condition will strive to take the lead in reaching the peak.In order to achieve the goal of"double carbon",firstly,carbon dioxide emissions are calculated according to the existing statistical data of energy consumption and production activity level of JC company.Secondly,STIRPAT model was established to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emission.Carbon emission was selected as the explained variable,and energy consumption,energy consumption structure and total industrial output value were selected as the explained variables.The regression analysis was carried out by ordinary least square method（OLS）.The carbon emission of 10,000 yuan output value was selected as the replacement variable of carbon emission.Then,according to the analysis results of influencing factors of carbon emissions,combined with basic data such as energy consumption and industrial output value of JC Company,this paper builds a LEAP-JC company model to forecast and analyze the time of carbon peak.The year 2021 is selected as the base year,and the long-term Energy Alternative Planning System（LEAP）model is constructed to simulate and forecast the energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions of JC Company from 2022 to2035,and three different scenarios are set up to observe the change trend of JC company’s carbon emissions.The main research conclusions of this paper are as follows:（1）Energy consumption,energy consumption structure and industrial output value all have a positive impact on JC company’s carbon emissions.Moreover,they also have a significant impact on JC company’s carbon emissions;（2）During the study period,the reduction of energy consumption intensity under both the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario can enable JC Company to achieve carbon peak in 2023.Under the low carbon scenario,increasing photovoltaic power generation can significantly reduce the total carbon emissions.Meanwhile,under the strengthened low carbon scenario,increasing photovoltaic power generation can improve the technological level and reduce the proportion of fossil energy,which can make the reduction of carbon emissions under the low carbon scenario more obvious.Based on the above conclusions,the following policy recommendations are made:（1）Comprehensively construct the"1+N"policy system of JC Company;（2）Strictly control the consumption of fossil energy and actively develop non-fossil energy;（3）Deepen the reform of process technology and encourage the use of new technologies and processes that reduce carbon and pollution;（4）Strengthen the construction of JC company’s energy and carbon emission management system,upgrade mechanical and electrical equipment,increase the number of new low-energy machinery and equipment,meanwhile,vigorously promote energy saving and emission reduction technology,and furthermore change the way of energy use;（5）Actively promote the application of three-carbon technology,build a"low-carbon-zero-carbon-negative carbon"technological innovation system,and deal with the relationship between short-term existing technology to support emission reduction and long-term technological innovation.