Research On Carbon Emission Prediction And Peak Path In Hebei Province

Nowadays,global environmental issues are imminent,and the problems caused by global warming caused by excessive carbon emissions have threatened the survival and development of mankind.China demonstrated the courage and responsibility of a major country at the Paris Conference,announcing that China will achieve carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060,marking the beginning of the first year of carbon neutrality in China.In the current process of coordinated development between Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei,Hebei plays two roles:"service"and"rise".Whether Hebei Province can fulfill the peak task with quality and quantity will affect the overall development of the entire Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei region.Therefore,this article takes Hebei Province as the research object,studies the carbon peak and path in Hebei Province,and provides relevant policy recommendations to ensure that Hebei can achieve the carbon peak goal by 2030.The main research module of this article has four parts.The first part analyzes and summarizes the historical development of Hebei Province from2005 to 2021,and calculates the historical emissions using the IPCC emission factor method.The second part identifies the influencing factors obtained from previous studies through grey correlation analysis,and screens out the influencing factors of carbon emissions in Hebei Province.The third part uses the ridge regression method and the STIRPAT model to construct a carbon emission prediction model for Hebei Province.Combined with scenario prediction analysis,three rates are set for the population size,per capita GDP,and urbanization rate as social and economic development indicators as a whole,and two rates are set for industrial structure,energy structure,and energy intensity,respectively.The results are as follows:3×2~3=24 Carbon emissions from 2022 to 2040 under 24 scenarios.In the fourth part,the entropy weighted TOPSIS method is used to comprehensively evaluate the results of 24 scenarios,giving the optimal path for reaching the carbon peak in Hebei Province,and based on the research results,providing policy recommendations for achieving the peak emission reduction in Hebei Province.The research results show that the influencing factors of carbon peak in Hebei Province are population size,per capita GDP,urbanization rate,industrial structure,energy structure,and energy intensity.Population size,per capita GDP,urbanization rate,industrial structure,and energy structure have a positive effect on the increase of carbon emissions in Hebei Province,while energy intensity has a negative effect on the increase of carbon emissions in Hebei Province.Based on the analysis of scenario prediction results,it can be concluded that:1.Hebei Province cannot achieve the carbon peak goal by 2030 if it continues to develop on the current benchmark,and will achieve the carbon peak goal by2034,with a peak value of 910.7407 million tons of carbon dioxide,indicating that the current industrial structure and technical level of Hebei’s economic development scenario are insufficient,and changes are needed to achieve the carbon peak goal.2.The possible peak range for Hebei Province is approximately[82923.49,95423.8]million tons of carbon dioxide,with a time interval of[2027,2039].The total carbon emissions range for Hebei Province from 2021-2040 is[158.979,180.593]million tons of carbon dioxide.3.The optimal peak path in Hebei Province is to increase energy intensity and industrial structure change rate while maintaining the benchmark rate of socio-economic development and energy structure adjustment.Under this path,Hebei Province will achieve a carbon peak in 2030,with a peak value of 877.4791million tons of carbon dioxide and a cumulative carbon emission of 16.8714billion tons of carbon dioxide.The probability of achieving this path is 0.81.The development rate of all indicators in this path is in line with the policy development direction of the country and Hebei,and is consistent with the actual development situation of Hebei,with a high possibility and ability to achieve.