Research On The Influencing Factors Of Carbon Emission And The Prediction Of Carbon Peak In China

China is a major energy consumer in the world,and China’s process of achieving carbon peak directly affects global climate change.Based on this background,it is of great significance to explore the core influencing factors affecting China’s carbon emissions and predict the future peak time of China’s economic development decision.This paper analyzes and studies the core influencing factors of carbon emissions and predicts the future carbon peak time and carbon emission peak,so as to provide policy suggestions for China’s goal of carbon peak in 2030.Firstly,through descriptive statistics,this paper summarizes the core influencing factors of carbon emissions in China at this stage,mainly including per capita GDP,population size,energy consumption,energy intensity,carbon emissions,carbon emission intensity,etc.Secondly,the improved STAPPAT model was used to decompose carbon dioxide emissions into seven factors: population size,per capita wealth,technology level,energy consumption structure and investment intensity,R&D investment intensity,and carbon emission intensity,and constructed provincial panel data of various provinces and cities in China from 2005 to 2019,and the dynamic panel estimation method was used to regress the driving factors affecting carbon dioxide emissions in China and the east,central and western regions,and the Kuznets curve hypothesis of carbon dioxide emissions was verified.The results show that the Kuznets curve of carbon dioxide environment in China and the east,central and western regions are N-type,that is,they show a trend of first increasing and then decreasing and then increasing.Then,based on the STIRPAT model,the scenario analysis method is used to set 9scenarios to predict the peak.The results show that China will peak carbon emissions before 2030 only under a low-carbon scenario,showing that curbing the development of pro-carbon factors will reduce carbon emissions faster in the short term.Finally,based on the statistical analysis and empirical research results in the main part,relevant policy opinions are given:(1)formulate effective policies to promote the development of green economy;(2)Strengthen the environmental awareness of Chinese citizens;(3)Reduce the dependence of China’s economic growth on fixed assets and improve input-output efficiency;(4)Develop new energy,reduce energy intensity,and transform the energy structure;(5)Increase investment in research and development of green innovative technologies.According to the characteristics of each region,targeted suggestions and opinions are given:(1)improve the standards of lowcarbon economic development and build a low-carbon technology research and development highland in the eastern region;(2)Improve the efficiency of resource utilization in the central region,and undertake industries that meet the requirements of low-carbon development;(3)The western region should organically combine the construction of carbon sinks with the construction of national ecological security barriers.