The Research Of Influencing Factors Analysis And Prediction Of China's Province-scale Energy Related Carbon Emission

Global climate change is mainly caused by greenhouse gases emitted by human activities.In order to control greenhouse gas emissions,the international community have been taking ambitious measures.As the world's largest energy consumer and carbon emitter,China is under an pressure of reducing emissions.To meet this target,the Chinese government has pledged to peak carbon dioxide emissions by around 2030.China's emission reduction target will be distributed to the provinces for the implementation purpose.Considering the provinces' future economic development,technological progresses and policy trends are facing great uncertainty,whether this reduction target can be achieved or not is still a question to be answered.This paper aims to estimate the trend of carbon dioxide emissions due to the energy consumption of each province in China,and identify the main factors driving carbon emissions in each province from 2000 to 2017 by using the extended STIRPAT model.Based on the future social,economic,energy and other plans of development by each province,this paper analyzes the situation of peak emission in 2030 and discusses the appropriate path to achieve peak emission goal in different regional development conditions.First,by analyzing the energy consumption situation and the historical trend of carbon dioxide emission of China's provinces from 2000 to 2017,it is shown that the energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of China and other provinces are increasing,while the energy intensity and carbon emission intensity are decreasing.There are significant differences in energy intensity and carbon emission intensity among provinces.Energy intensity and carbon emission intensity are higher in energy-producing provinces and economically backward provinces,and lower in economically developed regions such as eastern coastal areas.Secondly,this paper analyzes the countries and regions of the main factors that influence the carbon dioxide emissions.The results show that the influencing factors of China's carbon emission are the population(37.2%),unit energy carbon emissions(19.48%),urbanization(18.18%),the per capita GDP(17.4%),energy intensity(7.74%).The contribution of carbon emission factors varies greatly from province to province.For instance,the contribution of population in Beijing is 17%,but in Jiangsu is 89.5%.Finally,by using the extended STIRPAT model,the scenario analysis on national and regional carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 is carried out.The results show that neither the baseline scenario nor the planned scenario will allow China's carbon emissions to peak before 2030.Among five scenarios,the peak emission order from high to low is the Yangtze river environment priority scenario,Energy conservation and emission reduction scenario,Western economic priority scenario,Emission reduction scenarios of key provinces,Balanced emission reduction scenario.Their peak emissions are respectively 15.695 billion tons,14.864 billion tons,14.660 billion tons,14.571 billion tons and 14.131 billion tons.Among them,the balanced emission reduction scenario is the most feasible plan for provinces to reduce emissions.