Research On Scenario Prediction And Implementation Path Countermeasures Of "Carbon Emission Peak And Carbon Neutralization" Trend In Hebei Province

Human beings are suffering from the consequences of dramatic climate change.Countries around the world have recognized that greenhouse gas emissions must be controlled.Energy conservation and emissions reduction have become a global focus.As the largest developing country with huge energy demand,China actively undertakes heavy responsibilities of ecological protection and is committed to carbon emission reduction.2030 and 2060 are the target time of carbon emission peak and carbon neutralization announced by the Chinese government.China is implementing the concept of innovative,coordinated,green,open and shared development,and accelerating the development of a green and low-carbon circular economic development system.Due to the different situation of economic development,energy consumption,carbon emission and carbon absorption in different provinces,the implementation path of carbon emission peak and carbon neutralization also needs specific analysis.Hebei Province,which has long taken the secondary industry as the economic pillar and have consumed a huge amount of energy,is currently seizing the opportunity to accomplish the goal of economic transformation and energy revolution,and unremittingly striving to achieve the goal of "carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality".Taking Hebei Province as the research object,this paper analyzes its realization trend of carbon emission peak and carbon neutralization,and explores the implementation path of carbon emission peak and the implementation path of carbon neutralization suitable for Hebei Province.From the perspective of technical economy and management,this paper studies the future prospects of carbon emission peak and carbon neutralization in Hebei Province.Firstly,this paper gives a comprehensive introduction to the situation of economy and energy consumption in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2019.The total carbon emissions,the carbon emissions of the power industry and the carbon absorption of Hebei Province are calculated.Subsequently,the LMDI decomposition method is used to analyze the influencing factors of the total carbon emissions and the carbon emissions of the power industry in Hebei Province.On this basis,using ridge regression and STIRPAT model,this paper selects the population,urbanization rate,per capita GDP,industrial structure and energy intensity as the influencing factors to construct the prediction model of total carbon emissions in Hebei Province,and selects the population,urbanization rate,per capita GDP,standard coal consumption of thermal power,power production structure and electricity intensity as the influencing factors to construct the prediction model of carbon emissions of power industry in Hebei Province.Then through the scenario analysis method to design the parameters of the influencing factors and set different development conditions,the total carbon emissions of Hebei Province and the carbon emissions of the power industry are predicted,so as to analyze the carbon emission peak situation of the whole Hebei Province and power industry under different development scenarios.Combined with the change trend of carbon absorption in Hebei Province under different growth rates,the state of carbon neutrality in Hebei Province is discussed.Finally,the appropriate carbon emission peak path and carbon neutralization path in Hebei Province are obtained,and the countermeasures and suggestions to promote the "carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality" goals are put forward.