Study On Influencing Factors Of Carbon Emissions And Scenario Prediction Of Carbon Peak In Handan City

The trend of global warming has begun to accelerate,and it has become the consensus of global environmental governance to take active actions to mitigate climate change.As cities are gathering areas for energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions,it is key to explore urban carbon emission factors and set achievable carbon reduction targets.Handan City is a typical resource-based industrial city in northern my country.Urban development is relatively dependent on fossil energy,especially in the coal and steel-related industries with huge greenhouse gas emissions.To achieve the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in Handan City,to explore a road that fits the characteristics of regional development The carbon peak path is particularly important.This study refers to the accounting method recommended in the Guidelines for the Preparation of Provincial Greenhouse Gas Inventories(Trial),and calculates the greenhouse gas emissions of Handan City from 2010 to 2019 by sector,and compiles the greenhouse gas emission inventory based on the accounting results;based on the accounting results,the regional Analyze the performance indicators,and analyze and identify the key driving factors of greenhouse gas emissions in Handan City through the decomposition of the LMDI model;finally,taking 2019 as the base year,construct relevant scenarios for the future low-carbon development of Handan City,set relevant scenario parameters,and predict through the LEAP model Construct the peak time and peak carbon emissions of the scenario.The research results show that the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions in Handan City from 2010 to 2019 fluctuates as a whole,and the energy activity sector is the main source of contribution to Handan City’s greenhouse gas emissions,and the proportion of the city’s total greenhouse gas emissions during the research period is always in the At the end of 2019,per capita greenhouse gas emissions,carbon productivity,and energy intensity were 16.80 tons/year,2,172.83 yuan/ton of carbon dioxide,and 1.16 tons of standard coal/10,000 yuan.The decomposition results of the LMDI model show that the comprehensive effect of various influencing factors has promoted the increase of greenhouse gas emissions compared with 2010,among which the population effect and the per capita GDP effect have always played a role in promoting the increase of the total greenhouse gas emissions in the region.The latter is the main factor driving the increase of regional carbon emissions.The LEAP model carbon peak prediction research results show that by 2040,the energy demand for the baseline scenario,the industrial transformation scenario,the clean energy scenario,and the comprehensive low-carbon scenario are 103.7816 million tons,81.2374 million tons,66.6255 million tons,and52.7651 million tons,respectively.The energy demand of the four construction scenarios is on the rise.The clean energy scenario and the comprehensive low-carbon scenario will peak carbon emissions before 2030.The peak value of the clean energy scenario is188.8184 million tons of carbon dioxide,and the peak value of the comprehensive lowcarbon scenario is 174.7451 million tons.Ton.Finally,based on the results of the accounting list,the BEST-Cites tool is used to formulate a list of low-carbon policy suggestions in Handan City,and put forward suggestions for urban low-carbon development,in order to provide a basis for the formulation and action of low-carbon policies in Handan City.