The Impact Of Grain Production Distribution Change On Water Resources Carrying Capacity In The Three Plains Of China

Human beings obtain food from agro-ecosystems,food security and ecological security are interdependent,as long as the ecosystem remains coordinated and stable,food security and ecological security can achieve "double security".With the accelerated development of industrialization and urbanization,the pattern of grain production in China’s three major plains has changed significantly.The new pattern of "grain moving from the south to the north" has made the contradiction between the production layout of the three plains and water resources increasingly prominent.Agricultural water use occupies an important position in the structure of total water consumption,and the shift in the center of gravity of food production has led to a mismatch between water demand and supply patterns,further exacerbating the water pressure.Therefore,from the perspective of "double security" of food security and ecological security,this paper will correctly understand the law of grain production layout change in grain production is conducive to rational planning of grain production,and is conducive to visually showing the impact of different crops in different regions on the carrying capacity of water resources in the process of production layout change in different regions through the calculation of grain production concentration and location entropy index of the three major plains from 1978 to 2020,and through empirical analysis.In this way,the allocation of water resources for different crops between different regions can be more scientific and reasonable,in order to provide a part of the basis for the policy system for the coordinated development of the three plains under the goal of ensuring the "double security" of food and ecology.The main research contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows:Firstly,through the macro data,the production concentration index and location entropy index of wheat,rice and corn in the provinces and cities of the three major plains of China from1978 to 2020 are calculated,and it is concluded that the center of gravity of wheat production in the North China Plain remains unchanged and shows a gradual strengthening trend.Maize production and maize agglomeration levels have dominated the Northeast Plain since 2010;Rice production in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River has always occupied an absolute dominant position,and it is a very important focus of rice production.Secondly,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is used to evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources in the provinces and cities of the three plains.Judging from the final score of water carrying capacity,the level of water carrying capacity of water resources in the North China Plain is low,and the space and potential for sustainable development and utilization are limited;The development and utilization of water resources in the Northeast Plain is relatively good,and the carrying capacity of water resources is moderate but still not optimistic;The development and utilization of water resources in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is better,and the carrying capacity of water resources is the best among the three plains.Finally,the impact of food distribution on water carrying capacity from 2003 to 2020 was analyzed by using a comprehensive data model of non-observational effects.It is concluded that the impact of the grain production layout of the three plains on the carrying capacity of water resources is gradually improving,but it is still necessary to improve the efficiency of agricultural water use in terms of policies,science and technology,infrastructure construction and publicity.