| Water resources are the indispensable material basis for human survival and natural resources for promoting economic and social development.The development and utilization of water resources is an important part of promoting the sustainable development of economy,society and ecological environment.The state of water resources carrying capacity is a comprehensive reflection of the three systems of water resources,economy,society and ecological environment.Therefore,the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity is of great significance to the sustainable development of water resources.Connection number has been widely used in quantitative treatment of uncertain problems.Because water resources carrying capacity is a complex system with both randomness and fuzziness,how to deal with the randomness and fuzziness of regional water resources carrying capacity is an important difficulty in the current research,and the random simulation method of connection number has unique advantages in dealing with the randomness and fuzziness of water resources carrying capacity.The corresponding results can be obtained by random simulation based on the connection number.Based on this,this paper takes the evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity as the research object,uses the research method of combining connection number and random simulation to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Anhui Province from 2005 to 2018.Study,propose and verify the feasibility and applicability of the random simulation method of connection number;meanwhile,use the obstacle degree model to diagnose and identify the main obstacle factors affecting the water resources carrying capacity of 16 cities in Anhui Province in 2015.The following results are obtained:(1)To solve the randomness and fuzziness in the evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity,the connection number random simulation evaluation model of regional water resources carrying capacity was constructed by simulating the difference coefficient by random simulation method.Taking Anhui Province as an example,the results showed that the overall development trend of water resources carrying capacity in Anhui Province from 2005 to 2018 was getting better year by year.The change trend in 2006,2011,2013 and 2017 was deteriorating,and the change trend in other years was improving.The change trend improved significantly in 2010 and2016,and deteriorated significantly in 2011 and 2017.Calculation result of this evaluation method was reasonable and reliable,which was more in line with the actual situation of Anhui Province.(2)To overcome the deficiency that the triangular fuzzy number of the difference coefficient generally takes a fixed value in the random simulation method of connection number,the triangular fuzzy number about the dynamic value of the difference coefficient with the evaluation index sample is constructed by improving the fixed value of the triangular fuzzy number.A triangular fuzzy number random simulation evaluation model for regional water resources carrying capacity was constructed.Taking Anhui Province as an example,the results showed that the improved dynamic triangular fuzzy number random simulation method had narrow and robust evaluation results in water resources carrying capacity in Anhui Province,and the reliability and accuracy was improved.The calculation results of this method include the calculation results of subtraction set pair potential,which provided important information about the reliability of evaluation results for set pair events.(3)To deal with the problem that the membership degree of the most possible value in the dynamic value of triangular fuzzy number is too concentrated,the dynamic value of trapezoidal fuzzy number is determined by constructing the random simulation formula of trapezoidal fuzzy number.The trapezoidal fuzzy number random simulation evaluation model of regional water resources carrying capacity was constructed,and the obstacle degree model was used to diagnose and identify the main obstacle factors affecting the regional water resources carrying capacity.Taking the water resources carrying capacity of 16 cities in Anhui Province in 2015 as an example,the results showed that the water resources carrying capacity in Northern Anhui was poor;the water resources carrying capacity in central Anhui was relatively good,and in southern Anhui was better.The relatively high obstacle degree of single index included the water production modulus of Chuzhou City,the water demand of 10000 yuan industrial added value of Chizhou City,the per capita water supply of Huangshan City,the farmland irrigation quota of Xuancheng City,etc.This evaluation method improved the reliability of the evaluation grade and can diagnose the main obstacle factors concisely.To sum up,the above random simulation method of connection number is feasible and applicable in the evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity,and can effectively deal with the randomness and fuzziness of regional water resources carrying capacity.The obstacle degree model of connection number is reliable and reasonable in the diagnosis of regional water resources carrying capacity.The above two have popularization and application value in the evaluation and diagnosis of regional water resources carrying capacity. |
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