Analysis Of Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity Evaluation Based On Cloud Model And Set Pair Connection Number

The research of water resources carrying capacity includes evaluate of carrying capacity,recognition of fragile index,regulate and control of fragile index,analysis of temporal and spatial evolution,etc.In the research method of water resources carrying capacity based on set pair analysis,there are different sorts of set pair systems and evaluation criteria set pairs because of various experts and scholars have different ideas and emphases on model building.In order to consider the above uncertainties while researching regional water resources carrying capacity,On the basis of dividing the regional water resources carrying capacity index system into three subsystems:carrying capacity,carrying pressure and carrying regulation,the paper introducing the cloud model to improve its evaluation criteria set pairs and index connection numbers,and evaluating regional water resources carrying capacity,finding the distribution characteristics of evaluation results,discriminating,regulating and controlling fragile index by using cloud model,subtraction set pair potential and effect full connection number.The above mentioned ideas were applied to research water resources carrying capacity of Anhui Province in 2005?2015 and its prefecture-level cities in 2011?2015,and the following results have been achieved:(1)The evaluation model of regional water resources carrying capacity based on cloud model coupled with set pair analysis,improves regional water resources carrying capacity evaluation criteria set pairs to limited value range evaluation criteria set pair cloud models based on the quantification of evaluation criteria uncertainty,and combines formulas of connection number to evaluate and analyze single and general index of water resources carrying capacity in Anhui Province each year,and discriminates fragile indexes by using subtraction set pair potential.The result shows water resources carrying capacity in Anhui Province,2005?2015,were having roughly fluctuating improvement trend,but the overall carrying condition was still poor,and fragile indexes were mainly focused on the water resources carrying capacity subsystem.(2)Random simulation algorithm based on cloud model and set pair analysis model,random simulate regional water resources evaluation criteria set pairs for limited range,and calculate connection numbers of prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province,2011?2015,and then acquire the results of water resources carrying capacity grade identification and the mean value of grade eigenvalue under many simulations.Continue to use the more convergent effect full connection number to dynamically identify fragile indexes of each prefecture-level city,find out the control range of fragile indexes based on the distribution characteristics of cloud model.The result shows: the carrying condition were overloaded and had no significant improvement over the years in North Anhui Province,overload to critical overload in most years but had an improvement in Middle Anhui Province,critical overload to load and had an improvement over the years in South Anhui Province,water resources carrying condition were gradually improved from north to south,and the area of North Anhui Province is the main reason for the negative development of water resources carrying condition in Anhui Province.(3)Comprehensive evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity based on connection number cloud model,utilize cloud model to improve the composition of connection,gets the connection number cloud model,and use this model to evaluate water resource carrying capacity in Anhui Province in2005?2015.The result shows,compares to the results of cloud model coupled with set pair analysis model and set pair model,the results of connection number cloud model are similar,but the change trend of carrying condition over the years is more gentle.The above three models all achieved ideal results when studying water resources carrying capacity in Anhui province,and it can further analyze the reliability of results and the possibility of other results while getting intuitionistic results similar to traditional set pair analysis,providing a more flexible decision basis for solving the problem of regional water resources carrying capacity.