Dynamic Analysis And Evaluation Of Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based On Connection Number

With the continuous increase of a series of water resources problems caused by the socio-economic development and population expansion,the research of water resources carrying capacity has gradually become a hot and important issue.Among them,the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity is the core content.A lot of research has been done on resource carrying capacity evaluation,but a unified and effective evaluation method has not yet been formed.The evaluation and analysis of water resources carrying capacity provides a theoretical basis for the scientific regulation and rational allocation of water resources,and is of great significance for determining the scale of scientific development and maintaining sustainable social and economic development.Based on the basic theory of set pair analysis,the paper improves and innovates the existing adjoint functions of connection number,and proposes three new adjoint functions: subtractive full neighbor connection number,effect full partial connection number,and semipartial subtractive set pair potential.These three adjoint functions are applied to the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity to construct the corresponding dynamic evaluation models of regional water resources carrying capacity,and the three models are applied in Anhui Province.The following main conclusions have been achieved:(1)We improved the current construction mode to get the subtractive full neighbor connection number,and we use different examples to compare and analyze the subtractive full neighbor connection number with the existing two neighbor connection number.The results show that the subtraction improves the special case in which the difference of neighbor connection number is close to 0.At the same time,the subtractive full neighbor connection number is applied to the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Anhui Province.The results show that the increment curve of three representative indexes and the increment curve of the rank eigenvalue are basically in the state of axial symmetry of the transverse coordinate.The values and increments between the subtractive full neighbor connection number and the level eigenvalue of all indicators are closely negative correlated.Therefore,it can be seen that the positive or negative increment of the subtractive full neighbor connection number can directly judge the development trend of the evaluation index of regional water resources carrying capacity.(2)Based on the first-order effect full partial connection number,the expression of the second-order effect full partial connection number is proposed.The two methods combined with the subtraction set pair potential are applied to the dynamic analysis and evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Anhui Province,and compared with the widely used second-order full partial connection number.The results show that the water resources carrying capacity status in Anhui Province was generally on the rise from 2005 to 2015,but the overall carrying capacity is low.The calculation results of the first-order and second-order effect full partial connection number reflect the resemble development trends with them of the subtraction set pair potential.Compared with the second-order effect full partial connection number,the calculation results of the second-order full partial connection number are more concentrated near zero,and the dynamic curve is significantly different from the results of subtraction set pair potential.(3)Based on the theory of set pair analysis,we have analysed the main characteristics of the existed set pair potential and partial connection number to propose a new adjoint function of connection number named semipartial subtraction set pair potential,and we apply it to the dynamic analysis and evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Anhui Province.The results show that the overall water resources carrying status in Anhui Province was slowly improved,but the carrying situation was still not optimistic.The carrying situations in 2005,2007 and 2013 were approximating opposite potential which represented the overload status,and the situations in other years were relatively better.The main factors which led to poor status of water resources carrying capacity in Anhui Province were water production modulus,vegetation coverage rate,ecological water use rate,control rate of sewage discharge into the river,control rate of water quality in water function area,population density and farmland irrigation quota,respectively.These seven factors were the objects for regulating and controlling the water resources carrying capacity in Anhui Province.Water supply per capita,GDP per capita,water consumption per 10000 yuan of GDP and water demand per 10000 yuan of added industrial value during 2005 to 2015 had been significantly improved,which were important reasons for the improved water resources carrying situation in Anhui Province.In conclusion,the three kinds of dynamic evaluation models of regional water resources carrying capacity constructed in the paper have achieved good application results,and the analysis and evaluation results have strong rationality and applicability,which can provide a certain method reference for the dynamic evaluation of waterresources carrying capacity,as well as theoretical basis and technical support for the management and regulation of regional water resources.