| Regional water space equilibrium studies include loading status evaluation,vulnerability index content such as identification,control and space-time evolution analysis,space equilibrium of water resource research at home and abroad is still in its infancy,space equilibrium of water resource evaluation index system and evaluation model was constructed to establish still lacks a complete theoretical system,the experts and scholars for space equilibrium selection evaluation index of water resources and the model of thinking and focus on each are not identical,the established evaluation system and standard sets are also different.To qualitative evaluation of regional water resources spatial equilibrium conditions at the same time,considering the uncertainty factors,the paper using the index system of water resources carrying capacity,the space of the water balance research is an extension of the water resources carrying capacity research,the regional water resources spatial equilibrium index system is divided into water space equilibrium supply side and demand side two sub-systems,and introducing the theory of coupling coordination degree and fuzzy risk matrix theory,using the set pair analysis to improve the contact number of the above two kinds of theory,constructs the water resources based on connection number space equilibrium coupling coordination degree model and the fuzzy risk matrix model,and evaluate the regional water resources spatial equilibrium,The distribution characteristics of the evaluation results are analyzed.Use subtraction set pair potential to identify and regulate vulnerability indicators.The above ideas were applied to the study on the spatial balance of water resources in Anhui Province from 2005 to 2015 and its prefecture-level cities from 2011 to 2015,and the following results were obtained:(1)Spatial equilibrium evaluation model of regional water resources based on coupling connection number and coupling coordination degree,The uncertainty of the relation number is used to improve the linear normalization of the evaluation index by the traditional coupling coordination degree model,so that the evaluation results are more reasonable and reliable.The results of the model in the source-space equilibrium evaluation of Anhui Province show that: From the perspective of spatial change,the spatial balance of water resources in southern Anhui was the best,followed by the middle of Anhui and the worst in northern Anhui.The spatial balance of water resources showed a trend of worsening from south to north.From the perspective of time dimension,the spatial equilibrium state of water resources in most prefectures and cities in Anhui Province showed a trend of improvement year by year from 2011 to 2015.(2)Spatial equilibrium evaluation model of regional water resources based on coupling of connection number and fuzzy risk matrix,The risk matrix was used to establish two evaluation criteria for spatial balance of water resources,namely pessimism and optimism,and the average value of the two evaluation criteria was taken as the final grade value of spatial balance of water resources.Finally,the evaluation results of spatial balance of water resources in all cities of Anhui Province during2011-2015 were obtained.Compared with the evaluation results of the coupling model of connection number and coupling coordination degree,it is concluded that the evaluation results of the two models are basically consistent in time and space.The two methods support each other,which shows that the two evaluation models are real and reasonable in the spatial balance evaluation of water resources.(3)Using the subtraction set pair potential to diagnose and analyze the main influencing indicators affecting the spatial equilibrium and comprehensive development level of water resources in Anhui Province in 2015,the results are as follows: Water resources per capita and population density are the main reasons for the different comprehensive development levels of water resources supply and demand in three regions of Anhui Province,which are the main factors for the change of spatial equilibrium coupling coordination degree.Then the subtraction set pair potential is used to identify the vulnerability index.The results show that: The spatial equilibrium of water resources in Anhui Province from 2005 to 2015 generally showed a fluctuating and improving trend,but the overall equilibrium was still poor.Applying the above two models to study the assessment of water resources in an hui province space equilibrium are obtained ideal effect,can provide reasonable support for water space equilibrium qualitative evaluation,and through subtraction set pair potential influence space equilibrium of main indicators and space equilibrium condition change trend,can provide targeted for improve water space equilibrium conditions. |
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