Comprehensive Evaluation And Trend Analysis Of Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based On Connection Number

Water resources carrying capacity assessment and trend analysis is important basis for regional water resources carrying capacity monitoring and warning.In order to quantitatively evaluate regional water resources carrying capacity and its spatial-temporal evolution characteristics,taking the complex uncertain system of regional water resources to social economy and ecological environment carrying process as the research object,firstly,water resources carrying capacity system was divided into three subsystems of carrying pressure,carrying support and carrying regulation,then the Logistic function,grey correlation analysis and multi-dimensional conditional cloud algorithm were introduced into the water resources carrying capacity research field,and finally,combing with subtraction set pair potential,total partial and effecting connection number and risk matrix,three types of water resources carrying capacity assessment and trend analysis models were proposed in this paper.After applying the above model in Anhui Province,the calculating result shows that,(1)The traditional grey relational model was improved by using Logistic function,and regional water resources carrying capacity evaluation model based on Logistic grey relational and risk matrix(LGM)was constructed.The application results show that the evaluation results of water resources carrying capacity of Anhui Province calculated by LGM model are consistent with the practical process,which reveal a good varying trend.And spatially,most of the northern Anhui Province presents overloading level,the central area of Anhui Province presents critical carrying level,and the southern area of Anhui Province presents loading level.Overall,water resources carrying capacity is gradually improved from north to south,all of them were in the second critical state.(2)The regional water resources carrying capacity evaluation model based on grey correlation and risk matrix(GM)was constructed.And the results show that the result presents the same trend with that of LGM model,but the difference of regional water resources carrying capacity calculated by GM is not obvious,and the LGM model is more reasonable.(3)Using the subtractive set pair potential to calculate the association coefficient of water resources carrying capacity evaluation index for different levels,and the regional water resources carrying capacity evaluation model based on multi-dimensional conditional cloud(MCCM)is constructed.The application results show that,basically the calculation result of MCCM is similar with the results calculated by LGM model,but the difference of water resources carrying capacity for the whole region and different subsystems calculated by MCCM is more obvious that that of other models.The above methods can not only describe the regional water resources carrying level as a whole,but also describe the reliability of calculation results and carrying risk caused by the uncertainty of the water resources carrying system.Thus,the comprehensive evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity based on connection number is reasonable and feasible.The research results can be used to analyze the relationship between regional complex water resources system and human water activities scientifically,the carrying boundary problem,and even provide reasonable deciding basis for regional water resources allocation scheme and adaptive risk management and control strategies.