Study On Comprehensive Evaluation Of Water Resources And Water Environment Carrying Capacity In Anhui Province

Water resources are the source of life,the essential to production and the foundation of ecology.With the acceleration of Anhui Province’s integration into the "integration of the Yangtze River Delta",the level of social and economic development is bound to keep pace with the high-quality development,which puts forward new standards and requirements on the quantity and quality of the relevant supporting water resources in the region.Water resources and water environment carrying capacity is an important criterion to measure the level of regional sustainable development,and it is of great theoretical and practical significance to evaluate the regional water resources-water environment carrying capacity.This paper selected 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province as the research object,and 22 indexes were selected from the three subsystems of water resources,social economy and ecology to construct an evaluation index system of water resources-water environment carrying capacity in Anhui province,and makes a comprehensive evaluation of the water resources-water environment carrying capacity of Anhui Province in spatial and temporal dimensions by using the the index weight determined,which combining the analytic hierarchy process and entropy weighting method.The coupling degree and coupling coordination degree model are used to analyze the spatial and temporal dimension of the coordinated development level among the various systems in Anhui Province;The obstacle degree model was used to quantitatively diagnose the main obstacle factors affecting the improvement of water resources-water environment carrying capacity in Anhui province,and then the countermeasures to optimize the water resource-water environment carrying capacity in Anhui province were put forward.The main results are as follows.(1)During 2006-2020,the water resources-water environment carrying capacity in Anhui province showed a stable upward trend,and the carrying capacity level increased from Ⅳ level weakly unbearable to Ⅱ level bearable,which indicates that the relationship between economic and social development and water resources and water environment of Anhui Province gradually advances to a healthy and coordinated direction.Among the three subsystems,the water resources subsystem fluctuates obviously,and the spatial dimension changes in the following order: Southern Anhui >Central Anhui > Northern Anhui;The spatial difference of carrying capacity of social and economic subsystem is obvious.Although there are some differences in the ecological subsystem carrying capacity,it gradually decreases,and the overall increase is the largest,which indicates that Anhui Province has made great efforts to manage the ecological environment with obvious results.(2)During 2006-2020,the coupling degree of water resources-water environment carrying capacity in Anhui province fluctuated and increased,and all reached the high-level coupling stage,indicating that the degree of interaction between the subsystems was deepening.In the spatial dimension,the coupling degree in northern Anhui Province increases and then decreases,while the coupling degree in southern Anhui Province increases and the coupling degree in central Anhui Province changes relatively steadily,and the difference in coupling degree between cities decreases.During2006-2020,the coupling coordination degree of water resources-water environment carrying capacity in Anhui province showed a fluctuating upward trend,from barely coordinated at level 6 to well coordinated at level 9,indicating that the subsystems are developing in the direction of orderly and good coordination.In the spatial dimension,the coupling coordination level in southern Anhui is better than that in central and northern Anhui,and the growth rate is the fastest,while the coupling coordination level in central Anhui is better than that in northern Anhui.(3)During 2006-2020,the main obstacles to the improvement of the water resources and water environment carrying capacity of Anhui Province are the water resources criterion layer,the social and economic criterion layer and indicators such as the water supply modulus,the water production modulus and the proportion of tertiary industries.For example,both northern and central Anhui are constrained by the water production modulus,per capita water resources and forest coverage,with northern Anhui being more severely constrained;while southern Anhui is mainly constrained by the water resources development and utilization rate,the proportion of tertiary industries and forest coverage.After diagnosing and identifying the main obstacle factors,the corresponding countermeasures such as strengthening water resources management,improving water resources utilization rate and forest coverage rate were proposed respectively from the three subsystems to optimize the water resources-water environment carrying capacity in each region of Anhui Province.