Study On The Influencing Factors And Prediction Of Carbon Emission In Liaoning Province Under The Constraints Of Energy-saving And Emission-reduction

The environmental problems,such as global warming caused by the increase of energy consumption,have gradually become an important reason for restricing the development of human beings.Under this background,the "Low-carbon economy"development model is put forward,based on the theory of Marx’s ecological environment.With the trend of the development of the times,China has also actively developed the Low-carbon economy.In particular,Liaoning province is a large industrial province in China.While developing the economy,it consumed a lot of fossil energy and emitted a lot of greenhouse gases,which caused serious damage to its environment and economy.Therefore,the change trend of carbon emission and whether a series of goals of energy-saving and emission-reduction can be achieved in Liaoning Province should be the focus of research.The calculation,decomposition and prediction of carbon emissions in Liaoning Province has important practical significance and application value for promoting its energy-saving and emission-reduction and the development of low carbon economy.Firstly,it introduces the background and significance of this topic,combs some literatures about influencing factors and prediction of carbon emissions,elaborates the related theories and technology methods.Secondly,based on the datas of 2005-2015 years,the status of carbon emissions is understood in detail in Liaoning,and the possible influencing factors of the energy consumption carbon emissions are prelimimarily identified combined with literature review and qualitatively analyzed.On this basis,the decomposition model of Liaoning’s carbon emission factors is established by using LMDI decomposition method to modify the KAYA identity.The contribution rate of each factor to carbon emissions growth is calculated and quantitatively analyzed.Again,based on the extended STIRPAT model,the carbon emission prediction model of Liaoning province is established.Combined with the targets of energy saving and emission reduction,6 scenarios are set up and the carbon emissions in 2016-2040 year is predicted.Taking "a reasonable economic growth,a challenging emission reduction and faster and better in achieving the goal of energy-saving and emission-reduction" as the standard of choice,the scenario of moderate economic growth and strong emission reduction is selected as the best scenario.In the best scenario,Liaoning province can achieve the goal of energy-saving and emission-reduction without the expense of economic development.Finally,taking Marx’s ecological environment thought as the starting point,combined with the research results,some reasonable and feasible suggestions are put forward to the work of energy-saving and emission-reduction and the development of low carbon economy for Liaoning Province.