Research On Analysis Of Influencing Factors And Scenario Prediction Of Carbon Emissions In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Logistics Industry

The economic development of the Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region needs to be transformed to intensive,and there are serious problems such as waste of resources and energy consumption in the logistics industry.The study of carbon emissions in the logistics industry can effectively reduce the logistics costs and environmental impacts caused by economic growth.On the basis of measuring the carbon emissions of the logistics industry in the Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region,objectively analyzing the development level of the logistics industry,clarifying the influencing factors of the carbon emissions of the logistics industry,reasonably predicting the carbon peak time and peak of the logistics industry,putting forward low-carbon development countermeasures and targeted carbon emission reduction suggestions,which is conducive to the overall planning and guidance of the development of the logistics industry by governments in various regions,and has important practical significance for reducing the carbon emissions of the logistics industry in the Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region.This thesis takes the theory of low-carbon logistics as the starting point,takes the carbon emission problem of the logistics industry in the Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region as the research core,decomposes the carbon emissions of the logistics industry based on Kaya’s identity equation,uses the LMDI factor decomposition model to explore the contribution of each influencing factor to the carbon emissions of the logistics industry in the three provinces,uses the extended STAPPAT model combined with the scenario analysis method to predict the peak time and peak amount of the carbon emission of the logistics industry in the three provinces,and selects the appropriate optimal path according to the different status quos of the three provinces.It also puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to promote the low-carbon development of the logistics industry in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)The overall carbon emissions of the logistics industry in the three provinces show an upward trend,and the regional differences are obvious.(2)The carbon emissions in the logistics industry in BeijingTianjin-Hebei can be decomposed into:energy structure,energy intensity,industrial structure,economic output,and total population.The energy intensity effect of the logistics industry plays an important role in slowing down the growth of carbon emissions,and the economic output effect contributes greatly to promoting the growth of carbon emissions.(3)Under 13 different scenarios,the peak and peak time of carbon emissions in the logistics industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.Scenario 11 has become the optimal path for Beijing’s logistics industry’s carbon emissions,which will reach 9.4505 million tons in 2030 and decline year by year.Scenario 2 becomes the optimal path for carbon emissions in Tianjin’s logistics industry,which will reach 4,863,800 tons in 2025 and decline year by year.Scenario 2 becomes the optimal path for carbon emissions from the logistics industry in Hebei Province,which will reach 12.3892 million tons in 2030 and decline year by year.