| At present,global warming is seriously affecting the living environment and health of human beings,and it is urgent to reduce carbon and control emissions and build an ecological civilization.China has proposed to achieve carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.Land use change is one of the key elements leading to carbon emissions change,and is of great significance in achieving the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.In this context,exploring how land use carbon emissions evolve,how influencing factors work,and predicting future development can provide theoretical support and decision-making reference for the implementation of the regional “double carbon” target and the construction of low carbon cities.Jiangsu Province is a major province in terms of energy consumption and carbon emissions,and is a key region and potential area for carbon emissions reduction in China.Therefore,this thesis takes Jiangsu Province as the research area,based on the statistical data of Jiangsu Province and its 13 prefecture-level cities from 1995 to2020,reveals the trend of land use carbon emissions from the provincial scale and municipal scale respectively,clarifies the contribution of its influencing factors,predicts the future development trend of land use carbon emissions,and puts forward energy-saving and emissions reduction suggestions,in order to provide theoretical support and decision-making reference for the low-carbon,green and high-quality development of Jiangsu Province.The main conclusions are as follows.(1)Based on the analysis of land use changes in Jiangsu Province,land use carbon emissions are accounted for and their spatial and temporal evolution characteristics are analyzed.The overall spatial trend of land use carbon emissions is high in the south and low in the north,with high carbon emissions areas mainly concentrated in Nanjing,Suzhou,Wuxi and Xuzhou,while low carbon emissions areas are mainly distributed in Suqian,Huai’an and Lianyungang,etc.The scope of high carbon emissions areas shows a trend of gradual expansion.Carbon emissions in Jiangsu province show positive spatial correlation,and the state of spatial agglomeration gradually decreases.(2)Using the TAPIO decoupling analysis model to measure the relationship between land-use carbon emissions and economic development,the decoupling between land-use carbon emissions and economic development in Jiangsu Province changed from an expansive link to a weak decoupling between 1995 and 2020,with the decoupling index of each city gradually decreasing and the decoupling status gradually improving.Secondly,the LMDI factor decomposition model decomposes the incremental land-use carbon emissions into energy intensity factor,energy structure factor,industrial structure factor,economic development factor and population size factor,and it can be concluded that: energy intensity factor and industrial structure factor are the inhibiting factors of land-use carbon emissions,and their cumulative carbon emissions effects are-242.998 million tons and-544.88 million tons respectively.The energy structure,economic development and population size factors contribute to land use carbon emissions,and their cumulative carbon emissions effects are 16080.7 million tonnes,4716.39 million tonnes and 27917.990 tonnes respectively.There is a positive and negative trend between the contribution of economic development and energy intensity,while the contribution of the rest of the factors is relatively small.Compared with the promoting effect of economic development,the inhibiting effect of energy intensity is becoming more and more obvious,indicating that carbon emissions reduction in Jiangsu Province has begun to bear fruit.(3)To build a prediction model of land use carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province from 2021 to 2050 based on the extended STIRPAT model,set high,medium and low models for each influencing factor,and combine them into nine models to predict the land use carbon emissions under different scenarios,and compare and analyze the peak size of carbon emissions,peak year and cumulative carbon emissions under each model,it can be concluded that: high and medium model as the optimal path of low carbon development in Jiangsu province.In this scenario,the carbon increasing factors such as economic development,population size,and the proportion of secondary industry keep the baseline scenario forward,and the carbon saving factors such as the rate of increase of the proportion of non-fossil energy and the rate of reduction of energy intensity develop at a high rate,and its carbon peak time is 2029.Therefore,Jiangsu Province can develop alternative clean energy to adjust the energy structure,improve low-carbon technology to reduce energy intensity,promote industrial upgrading to optimize the industrial structure,promote steady economic development,and reasonably control the population size to control carbon emissions in order to gradually promote green and low carbon development in Jiangsu Province. |
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