Research On Influencing Factors And Peak Prediction Of Industrial Carbon Emissions In Jiangxi Province

Faced with the increasingly serious greenhouse effect problem,China put forward the development goal of striving for peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.Jiangxi Province,as an important part of China’s central region,shoulders the important task of the green rise of the central region.At present,Jiangxi’s industrial economy is in a rapid development stage,and its energy consumption is also rising rapidly.In today’s environment where the goal of energy saving and emission reduction and "double carbon" is fully implemented,whether the industry can achieve this goal is very important.Therefore,this paper studies industrial carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province.In order to find out the evolution characteristics of industrial carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province,find out its main influencing factors,predict the future carbon emissions trend according to the characteristics of influencing factors,and put forward some targeted countermeasures and suggestions.Using IPCC carbon emission factor method to calculate carbon emissions;GDIM model is used to decompose and identify the influencing factors of industrial carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province.The scenario analysis method and Monte Carlo simulation method are used to predict the future trend of industrial carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province.Through the research,the following main conclusions are obtained:(1)The industrial carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province increased rapidly,increasing by 268.01% from 2000 to 2020,with an average annual increase of 6.73%,40.11% and 3.43% in the last decade.Among them,the carbon dioxide emissions from raw coal consumption accounted for the largest proportion,rising from 42 million tons in 2000 to 119 million tons in 2020,with an average annual increase of 5.36%;Secondly,power consumption,with the fastest growth rate.(2)Among the influencing factors,the main promoting factors are industrial added value and investment in fixed assets,and the promoting effects of technological progress effect,employment population size effect,per capita carbon emission effect and energy consumption effect decrease in turn.Carbon intensity of output and carbon intensity of asset input are the two main restraining factors.The carbon intensity of technological progress and the carbon intensity of energy consumption show a restraining effect on the whole,but they show a two-way effect in each year.The investment efficiency and energy intensity always show inhibition,but the effect is small.(3)In scenario analysis,only the supply-side scenario can achieve the goal of peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030,and its peak time is 2025-2030,with a peak value of 277-279 million tons.The reference scenario and the policy development scenario can’t reach the peak carbon dioxide emissions within the study range;The peak time of technological innovation scenario is from 2035 to 2040,with a peak of290-298 million tons,which is still far from the national peak target.Based on the research conclusion,the following four policy suggestions are put forward:(1)Build Jiangxi energy hub,promote inter-provincial energy cooperation,and give full play to the role of the market in resource allocation;(2)Coordinating the energy industry chain and smoothing the energy management system;(3)Optimize the internal structure of industrial industry and resolutely curb the development of "two high" projects;(4)Strengthen the construction of talent echelon and promote the technological progress of energy industry.Figure [22] Table [9] Reference [119]...