| In recent years,carbon emissions have gradually become a common global concern,and with the continuous development of the economy,China’s carbon emissions have also continued to grow,accounting for the first place in the world’s total carbon emissions.China has proposed a "double carbon" target and sustainable development has attracted widespread attention from the whole society.The construction industry plays an important role in China’s economy and accounts for a large part of the country’s total carbon emissions,so energy efficiency and emission reduction in the construction industry is key to achieving the "double carbon" target.The construction industry in Shandong Province is the largest in China in terms of carbon emissions,so it is important to study the factors influencing construction carbon emissions and measures to reduce them.This thesis uses the whole life cycle assessment method in the construction sector,divides the whole process of the construction industry into four stages: production of building materials,transportation of building materials,construction and demolition of buildings,and operation of buildings,and establishes a phased calculation model of construction carbon emissions in Shandong Province based on the energy balance sheet and emission factor method.By collecting relevant data on energy and material consumption in the construction industry of Shandong Province,the carbon emissions of Shandong Province in each stage from 2004 to2021 were calculated separately,and the results were summarized and analyzed.Then,ten representative major influencing factors were selected through literature analysis and the whole life cycle estimation model of the construction industry,and the influence of these factors on the carbon emissions of the construction industry was studied.Then,a STIRPAT impact factor analysis model was constructed to quantitatively analyse the factors influencing the carbon emissions of construction in Shandong Province by eliminating multiple covariance through ridge regression.Finally,this thesis constructs a scenario prediction analysis of the factors influencing the construction carbon emissions in Shandong Province,and designs three scenarios: the baseline scenario,the low-carbon scenario and the high-carbon scenario,to predict the construction carbon emissions in Shandong Province from 2022 to 2035,and proposes targeted energy-saving and emission reduction suggestions based on the prediction results.The conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)The total carbon emissions of the construction industry in Shandong Province from 2004 to 2021 showed a fluctuating growth trend,with a 3.77-fold increase and a large increase of 311.47 million tonnes of carbon emissions.Energy saving and emission reduction in Shandong Province’s construction industry is beginning to bear fruit,and carbon emissions from the construction industry began to decline from 2019,with the highest total carbon emissions currently at 445.36 million tonnes in 2019.Building material production and building operation are the two stages that account for the largest share of carbon emissions from construction in Shandong Province,and are the stages that should be the focus of carbon emission reduction.(2)The contribution of the factors influencing carbon emissions,in descending order,are steel consumption(23.10%),cement consumption(16.15%),labour productivity of construction enterprises(9.35%),electricity consumption(8.54%),GDP per capital(8.13%),area of completed houses in the construction industry(6.90%),number of resident population(5.36%),urbanization rate(4.68%),value added of tertiary industry(3.96%),and average transport mileage(-0.37%).(3)According to the carbon emission scenario,under the baseline scenario,the construction industry in Shandong Province will not peak in 2030 according to current policies;by controlling the factors influencing carbon emissions,the construction industry in Shandong Province is expected to peak in 2030 under the low carbon scenario. |
