Research On Influencing Factors And Scenario Prediction Of Carbon Emissions From Construction Industry In Heilongjiang Province

China,as the largest country in carbon emissions,has been under great pressure in reducing emissions.Distribute the pressure to various industries,such as construction industry,which has a high proportion of carbon emissions,is facing a particularly severe emission reduction test.If we want to achieve the important goal of achieving the overall peak of national carbon emissions by 2030,we need not only the implementation of emission reduction policies by all industries,but also the joint efforts of all provinces and cities.Among them,Heilongjiang Province,as a major agricultural province,has attracted the attention of domestic scholars for its agricultural carbon emissions,but few people have studied the carbon emissions of its construction industry.The research on the carbon emissions of the construction industry in Heilongjiang Province in this thesis can make up for the lack of research in this field,and has practical significance for achieving the goal of reaching the carbon peak.Firstly,according to the authoritative data released by the National Bureau of Statistics,this study uses the carbon emission coefficient method to accurately calculate the carbon emissions of the construction industry in Heilongjiang Province;Secondly,the calculation results of carbon emissions are taken as dependent variables,and the influencing factors are taken as independent variables.The STIRPAT model is used to find out the influencing factors of the carbon emissions of the construction industry in Heilongjiang Province;Thirdly,according to the analysis results of variables,sort out the causal and functional relationships among the variables in the system,build the system dynamics model and test the effectiveness of the model;Finally,classify the impact factors,set up multiple development scenarios,dynamically simulate the carbon emissions of the construction industry in Heilongjiang Province under each scenario,and explore whether the construction industry in Heilongjiang Province can achieve the goal of reducing carbon emissions.The main conclusions of this thesis are as follows:(1)From 2010 to 2018,the total carbon emissions from the construction industry in Heilongjiang Province continued to grow,from 394000 tons to 799000 tons.In 2019,the carbon emissions of the construction industry declined for the first time,and the carbon emissions began to rise again in 2020,but did not exceed the carbon emissions in 2018.(2)The increase of population,economy and urbanization rate will lead to the increase of carbon emissions from the construction industry.The adjustment of energy structure,industrial structure,energy intensity and technology input will reduce the carbon emissions from the construction industry in Heilongjiang Province,of which the change of economic development level has the most significant impact on carbon emissions.(3)Under the conservative development scenario,the carbon emission of the construction industry in Heilongjiang Province has reached the target of carbon peak in 2018.Whether the carbon peak can be reached under the benchmark development scenario depends mainly on the industrial structure adjustment of Heilongjiang Province,the energy structure proportion of the construction industry and the technical input.If we can reasonably control the industrial structure,energy structure and technology investment,we can achieve the goal of reaching the carbon peak.Under the enhanced development scenario,more radical emission reduction policies need to be formulated to achieve the goal of reaching the carbon peak.This thesis provides theoretical basis and empirical support for the research on carbon emissions of construction industry in Heilongjiang Province,provides reference programs for the formulation of emission reduction policies of government departments,and provides ideas for the research on carbon emissions of construction industry in other provinces.