Measurement And Early Warning Of Resources And Environmental Carrying Capacity In Xinjiang

Resources and environmental carrying capacity(RECC)is a description of the carrying or accommodating capacity of social and economic development,which is restricted by many factors and varies with regions significantly.Xinjiang has both rich natural resources and a fragile ecological environment,leading to inherently low carrying capacity.Moreover,rapid industrialization,fast economic development,unreasonable water resource allocation and other problems left over by history have caused social and economic activities to strain RECC,and brought prominent contradiction between people and land.Based on the above backgrounds and problems,it is urgent to carry out a series of studies on the state measurement,driving force analysis and early warning simulation of RECC in Xinjiang.The carrying out of the research is mainly based on 3S technology,supplemented by data on vegetation,meteorology,land use,statistical data and other data from multiple fields.Firstly,based on the “Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response(DPSIR)” model,the spatialtemporal pattern characteristics of RECC in Xinjiang were measured and depicted.Secondly,the driving effects of different natural and socio-economic factors on RECC were revealed using the geo-detector model.Finally,the catastrophe model was used to study warning status in different regions of Xinjiang,the GM(1,1)model was used to analyze the warning state and trend,and then the regional control suggesttions were put forward according to the above research results.The research results can supplement usefully the research system of RECC,and provide a reference for the decision-making on the coordination of the high-quality development among various systems.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The characteristics of the spatio-temporal pattern of RECC in Xinjiang were depicted.During 2005-2020,the overall RECC in Xinjiang showed an improving trend,in which the area improved accounts for 38.93%,and the area of maintenance regions accounts for 52.59%.During the study period,RECC was in the middle and low levels,and the trend first increased and then decreased,the index in the late stage is higher than this in the early stage.In terms of spatial pattern,RECC in Xinjiang is high in northern Xinjiang,followed by southern Xinjiang and was lowest in eastern Xinjiang.The agglomeration characteristics are significant,but the degree of agglomeration continues to decline,and the areas where the agglomeration characteristics are not obvious account for more than 50%.(2)The driving effects of different factors on RECC were revealed.Socioeconomic factors are the dominant driving factors,and the driving effect of the proportion of cultivated land is the most obvious.The higher the proportion of the secondary industry,the stronger RECC driven by it.In addition,annual precipitation is also a natural driving factor that cannot be ignored.Although the time distribution contribution of GDP per region is not high(2.41%～6.13%),the interaction between GDP per region and other factors is significant.With the economic development and the adjustment of industrial structure,the driving factors tend to be diversified,but agriculture and industry are still the pillar industries in Xinjiang.(3)The warning state and trend of RECC in Xinjiang were judged.In terms of early warning status,more than 80% of regions have early warning levels between“heavy warning” and “tremendous warning”,but there is no “green no warning zone”,and the regions with a high warning level ranked lower due to imperfect response mechanisms.In terms of the trend of early warning,the overall early warning RECC in Xinjiang in 2025 and 2035 was relatively stable as a whole,and there is a trend of improvement in some parts.The thesis has 24 figures,28 tables and 144 references.